18 Oct 2021 - Week 42

[immy]

Hello 

Hope everyone had a good weekend. 

I am writing this just one hour into the London session this Monday. And once again, the dax is NOT moving. 

I took a plunge once again, against my plan, which is hurting me. This is what I have to say. 

1. when you look at Dax m1 and your results or the number of signals you got within the last week or month, and compare it to what you see on the h1 chart or daily chart for the month, beware.
2. It does not matter how strong or weak the d1 or h1 chart is. How lovely it is or whether it's trending or not. because we only look at 2 of the  h1 candles.... or 60 m1 candles within the available 1440 candles.... it does not matter to us what the rest of the 1380 candles did.
3. [08:55]
   this is  2nd major point of this week's deliberations.
4. [08:55]
   looking at h1 chart is useless apart from the levels.
5. [08:56]
   H1 chart cost me 500 dollars this am. when I thought "OMG" this is gonna be that super crash day. I went short. puff... nothing happened. DS0

https://www.screencast.com/t/02dH0baZain


https://www.screencast.com/t/89rIa4KTQY

[immy]

Nothing matters until the trend is formed. nothing. no indicators, no pattern, nothing.


The market cycle concept is a very accurate way of reading the market.

It's very objective and binary. 

It's the best thing I've found about the market. Far better than the eWave concept. 

It is my religion.

I can quickly summarize what it means:

• Market is either Trending or Ranging 
• When it is ranging its either in a tight range (no trades at all) or a wide range (some traders possible)
• When it's in a wide range, sometimes, there will be trends inside the tall/wide range from its top to the bottom and bottom to the top 
• When its trending its one of these 

1. A breakout phase  - No pullbacks, nearly all candles are the same color
2. Parallel wide trend channel (some pullbacks lead to good trades) or parallel tight trend channel (no trades here as no pullbacks)
3. converging channels (losing momentum ) these often indicate end of trend and possibly of a trading range forming 

and Repeat. 
 

[immy]