What Setup is this?

[Minsk]

What Setup is this? 
It's not a Setup 1 as there is no clean wave 3. There is a Break Out of the Trading range.
It does play out really nice if you use trailing Stop Loss when candles with red arrow close below a level. Eventually you get stopped out at 0.75 Fib Retrace.

 
 

[immy]

What Setup is this? 
It's not a Setup 1 as there is no clean wave 3. There is a Break Out of the Trading range.
It does play out really nice if you use trailing Stop Loss when candles with red arrow close below a level. Eventually you get stopped out at 0.75 Fib Retrace.

 
 

 

Hi 

I know what setup is this. 

It's called Randomly Finding a Winner. If you go back in history and test this you will find out of this pattern repeats itself and whether it has an edge. in order to do that, you will have to come up with base entry criteria and trade management rules. You will then test a small sample. If it shows some potential then you can expand the data set and run a thorough backtest. If then it proves to have an edge, then it is your setup

for me, its a random win. 

cheers 

[Minsk]

What Setup is this? 
It's not a Setup 1 as there is no clean wave 3. There is a Break Out of the Trading range.
It does play out really nice if you use trailing Stop Loss when candles with red arrow close below a level. Eventually you get stopped out at 0.75 Fib Retrace.

 
 


 

Hi 

I know what setup is this. 

It's called Randomly Finding a Winner. If you go back in history and test this you will find out of this pattern repeats itself and whether it has an edge. in order to do that, you will have to come up with base entry criteria and trade management rules. You will then test a small sample. If it shows some potential then you can expand the data set and run a thorough backtest. If then it proves to have an edge, then it is your setup

for me, its a random win. 

cheers 

 

Thank you Immy, that's not the kind of setup I'm going to chase. I like the name you gave it
 

[immy]

What Setup is this? 
It's not a Setup 1 as there is no clean wave 3. There is a Break Out of the Trading range.
It does play out really nice if you use trailing Stop Loss when candles with red arrow close below a level. Eventually you get stopped out at 0.75 Fib Retrace.

 
 



 

Hi 

I know what setup is this. 

It's called Randomly Finding a Winner. If you go back in history and test this you will find out of this pattern repeats itself and whether it has an edge. in order to do that, you will have to come up with base entry criteria and trade management rules. You will then test a small sample. If it shows some potential then you can expand the data set and run a thorough backtest. If then it proves to have an edge, then it is your setup

for me, its a random win. 

cheers 


 

Thank you Immy, that's not the kind of setup I'm going to chase. I like the name you gave it
 

 

Most bearish entries are winners within downtrends likewise most bullish entries are winners within uptrends. Most entries are losers within trading ranges. 

It's just the fact. Our brains are not wired to understand probabilities. When it comes to stats and data our brains have a very limited scope. We only think in terms of the last few occurrences. 

For example I was making the tough choice of whether to trade US30 or US100 during US session. I LIKE trading NASDAQ but when I looked at the stats I make more money on US30 than US100. While my brains tells me, I like US100 , why? it's telling me this is the market I make more money on. FACTS tell me otherwise. I have to listen to logic and evidence. So I have chosen US30. 

Cheers

ps: I trade both US30 and US100 during US open but I get distracted and sometimes start trading both and risk more. I wanted to eliminate this, so that I can focus on 1 chart.