Discussions and Chat

[Minsk]

Bank holiday in USA today

[immy]

Bank holiday in USA today



 

Thanks. Yes, It's a US bank holiday. Forex might still move. Let's see. 

Further to the 3R and half off at 1R. I wanted to add that I have done all these tests, numerous times. Actually, we have done 10,000 variations. And that's not just a number.r It actually was 10,000 variations of the set of rules we gave to the quant software. It created 10,00 variations and then eliminated 9995 systems and came back with 5 systems. These algorithms had the lowest drawdowns and the highest profits. And one of them was 1:3, one was 1:5 and the other one, which is the most profitable is no targets but simply letting it run using BOX and adding on when the first entry is BE. 

Moreover, if you move SL to BE at 1R and Close Half look at what you've done to your stats. 

Now, the 33% BE trades are giving you 0.5R winners. but the 33% winners are not giving you 3Rs but rather 1.5R. 

Now apply this to 10 Trades

Average Win/Loss (P) = X+Y+Z

Where X is Risk (loss trades), Y is BE trades and Z is profit trades. Since 33% of trades are winners 3.3 Trades will be winners, 3.3 BE and 3.3 Losers. 

P = (3.3x-1) + (0.5x3.3) + (3.3x1.5 )
P = (-3.3)+   1.65 + 4.95) 
P = 3.3 R Profits  

 

[immy]

Bank holiday in USA today




 

Thanks. Yes, It's a US bank holiday. Forex might still move. Let's see. 

Further to the 3R and half off at 1R. I wanted to add that I have done all these tests, numerous times. Actually, we have done 10,000 variations. And that's not just a number.r It actually was 10,000 variations of the set of rules we gave to the quant software. It created 10,00 variations and then eliminated 9995 systems and came back with 5 systems. These algorithms had the lowest drawdowns and the highest profits. And one of them was 1:3, one was 1:5 and the other one, which is the most profitable is no targets but simply letting it run using BOX and adding on when the first entry is BE. 

Moreover, if you move SL to BE at 1R and Close Half look at what you've done to your stats. 

Now, the 33% BE trades are giving you 0.5R winners. but the 33% winners are not giving you 3Rs but rather 1.5R. 

Now apply this to 10 Trades

Average Win/Loss (P) = X+Y+Z

Where X is Risk (loss trades), Y is BE trades and Z is profit trades. Since 33% of trades are winners 3.3 Trades will be winners, 3.3 BE and 3.3 Losers. 

P = (3.3x-1) + (0.5x3.3) + (3.3x1.5 )
P = (-3.3)+   1.65 + 4.95) 
P = 3.3 R Profits  

 

 

otherwise, 

P = -3.3 + 0 + 9.9
P = 6.6R per 10 Trades 

[Minsk]

Bank holiday in USA today





 

Thanks. Yes, It's a US bank holiday. Forex might still move. Let's see. 

Further to the 3R and half off at 1R. I wanted to add that I have done all these tests, numerous times. Actually, we have done 10,000 variations. And that's not just a number.r It actually was 10,000 variations of the set of rules we gave to the quant software. It created 10,00 variations and then eliminated 9995 systems and came back with 5 systems. These algorithms had the lowest drawdowns and the highest profits. And one of them was 1:3, one was 1:5 and the other one, which is the most profitable is no targets but simply letting it run using BOX and adding on when the first entry is BE. 

Moreover, if you move SL to BE at 1R and Close Half look at what you've done to your stats. 

Now, the 33% BE trades are giving you 0.5R winners. but the 33% winners are not giving you 3Rs but rather 1.5R. 

Now apply this to 10 Trades

Average Win/Loss (P) = X+Y+Z

Where X is Risk (loss trades), Y is BE trades and Z is profit trades. Since 33% of trades are winners 3.3 Trades will be winners, 3.3 BE and 3.3 Losers. 

P = (3.3x-1) + (0.5x3.3) + (3.3x1.5 )
P = (-3.3)+   1.65 + 4.95) 
P = 3.3 R Profits  

 


 

otherwise, 

P = -3.3 + 0 + 9.9
P = 6.6R per 10 Trades 

 

Clear, thanks for explaining with the numbers. 
It's way less profitable, so not worth pursuing.
 

[immy]

The last 24 months have been an amazing journey for me. I have changed how I trade. This process of evolution has been very satisfying for me. I have even changed the time frame. But overall I am still trading the same concept of Push, pull/pause and push again. Elliott Wave in 1 Line. 

The biggest lesson that I have learned is this (and this is not just the result of the past 24 months but the last 120 months). 



DO NOT COMPLICATE THINGS... KEEP IT VERY SIMPLE. Keep it simple on multiple levels. 

I know at this point in time, this is a cliche. Everyone harps about it. Keep it simple, but most people don't really get it. 

Keeping the PROCESS simple is the KEY. 

 

[Minsk]

waiting for movement.
yen pairs are in very flat trading range, these must come out of that some moment

[immy]

I saw the signal. I just did not like the overall chart. I like to see, tight flat boxed markets... which we have on other pairs today and as I write they are breaking... 
 

[immy]

I am seeing prices near the daily trend highs, and it consolidated a tight range ... now it's breaking it. I have set a limit buy ... if this trade goes as expected it could be a 5 to 10R even 20 R winner 

[immy]

A breakout has happened on the EURUSD, I expect a break and the rest of the previous level. Limit buy order set. 

 

[Minsk]

I put a PO on the USD-CAD this morning. Trade is running.
 
and looking at JPY