Discussions and Chat

[Minsk]

when you say markets only trend 10% of the time, I must have read it before but it didn't stick or the impact didn't stick, I now understand it's more waiting than being in atrade.
And looking as the possible R's, that's worth it.
I suppose for now this is maybe too advanced for me now, but I know I will not go to smaller TF than 1H. So in future, this is what I want to trade.
very powerful concept!
 

[immy]

What do I look for? What am I trying to catch when trading the forex market on the hourly chart?

I know that market remains in a breakout phase, only 10% of the time. 

I also know that the D1 chart produces 2-3 consecutive trend candles during that breakout phase. 

I want to catch those moves when they happen. Usually, I'll be able to catch the First Trend candle of the D1 when it breaks out on the H1. 
An example of this is the EUR/USD trade I took on the 9th of June.

I knew that EUR/USD was consolidating and not moving strong. It was within a TR on the D1. Which meant a wide trading range on the H1 that lasted several days. EURUSD D1 9th of June Breakout.jpg

I knew it, I was watching it. Now combine that with the fact the MARKETS ARE DRIVEN BY NEWS (especially forex).

The interest rate decisions carry more weight these days since governments are trying to curb inflation and the cost of living. The central banks around the world want to control inflation and for that, they need to adjust bank interest rates.

On the 9th ECB made a decision. (no change). Which created strong 2 trend candles on the hourly chart. It broke the TR levels of H1 as well as the D1. 


Now in this case I caught the beginning of the move/wave. If I wanted, and if  I could I would have let it run for the next 2 days, allowing me to grab a 20R winner but I got myself a 3R and a 10R winner on two accounts. More than enough for me. EURUSD D1 9th of June Breakout on H1.jpg
 I could see that D1 chart at clear levels to the left. I can remember telling my son, "This can be a 20K trade (10R). Maybe even a 30K (15R) I closed it when it hit the target but my first target was the Daily levels. Hard to let it run but that is what makes you the money. 

I can also catch the 2nd-day play, the 2nd day after a clear Trend candle on the D1 chart. I did that on the DAX on the same date 9th of June. 

Dax was in a wedge channel losing momentum to the upside on the daily chart. then on the 8th it broke below the channel and created a Trend candle. A bearish one. That translated into a strong bear wave (impulse) on the H1. DAXD1 chart.jpg
 You can see in the DAX D1 chart above, that since my trade on H1 was in line with the trend on D1, or the possible new bear trend, I had the option to simply LET IT RUN on the D1 chart. That would have turned this 1K risk trade into $20K winner and some more add-ons. 

I want to have my trades in line with the Daily chart information. I am essentially trading the Daily chart with entries on the H1 and exits are based on R multiples not really based on H1 chart. Or you can say that they are based on the h1 chart, but really my exits are simply R multiples. 




 

It is important to understand that the above scenarios, do happen, but not every day. They are HIGHER probability events. 

These things happen on the M1 chart as well, but you don't benefit from the overall feel of the market. The trend of the overall market. You just react to volatility breakouts and look for momentum. If you want, you can mark these levels off h1 and pursue them, but the game gets complicated and you will lose the plot. 

The CIP or VIP
M1 should be used for CIP only. The chaos of Volatility influx point. VIP... Where is the VIP? 

This happens nearly every day at the opening of the indices. It does not work for forex. Forex DOES Not have open time volatility changes. But forex reacts to its relevant news better than indices. So the VIP or CIP for FOREX is the News events. News will provide great opportunities for both swing or day traders. For M1, you will look at the momentum breakout and catch a pullback. For H1, you will see if the news creates a strong enough reaction that the tsunami of orders begins and continues for the next 2-3 days. 

The main difference between an intraday scalp of M1 and swing or day trade of H1 is that for the hourly time frame, the Setup pattern is not enough. IT must be in line with the trend. On the m1, in most cases, a strong pattern usually works as long as it is not during the DEAD hours. 

Pattern of TTTPP , when it happens at the Sesssion Open on the 5 or 1-minute chart, has a higher, much higher probability than when it happens within dead hours. It is also different for hourly charts. IF the pattern appears straight after the news event and clears levels to the left, it has more power (probability). 

MORE SHAKEOUTS on M1 and M5
The lower time frame, especially in forex, will have a lot more FAKE outs and shakeouts (when you are shaken out by a spike that goes against your trade and trade gets kicked out by a pip or two and then price resumes in the direction of the signal). 

It TAKES a lot more money to turn an hourly chart around than it does to turn an M1 chart.
 

[immy]

I did not look at it, or I did look at it, but not with an intent to trade. 

I am switching or in the process of switching to the SP500 instead of NASDAQ or US30. because this takes in all of the companies. 

I saw it but did not take it. Here is the chart #US500 #SPX #SPY

[immy]

I did not look at it, or I did look at it, but not with an intent to trade. 

I am switching or in the process of switching to the SP500 instead of NASDAQ or US30. because this takes in all of the companies. 

I saw it but did not take it. Here is the chart #US500 #SPX #SPY

 

Consolidation, not a clean pullback. So I could not really take it. But it was a nice setup, it broke YD's trading range and continued up. No My setup but the idea was good. QQQ Nasdaq US100

[immy]

This news usually have no impact but today, the expected figure was only 0.2 less than the expected of 50.2 and the market shot up. 

Indicating that inflation might have already responded to interest rate hikes. 

NASDAQ FLYING  there is a signal... extended but behind it is the power of NEWS 
 
 

[immy]

This news usually have no impact but today, the expected figure was only 0.2 less than the expected of 50.2 and the market shot up. 

Indicating that inflation might have already responded to interest rate hikes. 

NASDAQ FLYING  there is a signal... extended but behind it is the power of NEWS 
 

 

 

[Minsk]

nothing setting up nicely, so I'm done for this week.
have a great weekend Aimsters!

[immy]

Now this is an interesting TTTPPP

A GBPJPY TTTPPP.jpg

 

Earlier today it had one on the 5 Minute chart. 

 

TTTPP.jpg

 

[immy]

I have a PO on DAX and Nasdaq 100 

[immy]

I have a PO on DAX and Nasdaq 100 

 

CANCELLED - too late in the day and the week.