GBP - The British Pound

[Minsk]

looks like it's going to break the trading range downwards now.
waiting for a banana signal now
 
 

[immy]

I use a Naked Chart to Analyze the Levels off the Daily chart for my H1 Strategy. IT REALLY REALLY REALLY helps.  Sometimes, you will feel overwhelmed but that means you either have been watching over analysing for too long or you have too many markets to watch. 

Check how clearly we can see that there is a Micro TR on this chart. This translates in to that Trading Range on the H1

2022-06-29_11-21-52.jpg

 

The TR broke to the down side so the following trade would be a loss. But we can see the potential here. WE wait for BAnana signals after a break like this. thanks Minsk. 

2022-06-29_09-01-29.jpg

 
 
 

[Minsk]

here we go, PO in.
signal candle is 30-ish, 32.5 pips. Good enough.

thank you Immy for above explanation
 

[Minsk]

actually hoping for another banana signal that will give a much smaller SL. So maybe we can adjust the trade after this candle

update: trade is running

[immy]

actually hoping for another banana signal that will give a much smaller SL. So maybe we can adjust the trade after this candle

update: trade is running

 

Remember Maximum Pips for stop loss is 25 or 30 for GU. Best to find 20 pip Stop loss entries though. 

[Minsk]

actually hoping for another banana signal that will give a much smaller SL. So maybe we can adjust the trade after this candle

update: trade is running


 

Remember Maximum Pips for stop loss is 25 or 30 for GU. Best to find 20 pip Stop loss entries though. 

 

Ok I will adjust that in my trading plan.
So that is 
UJ = max 20 pis
GU = max 25-30 pips , best to look for 20 pips
EU = max 25 pips, best to look for 20 pips
 

[immy]

actually hoping for another banana signal that will give a much smaller SL. So maybe we can adjust the trade after this candle

update: trade is running



 

Remember Maximum Pips for stop loss is 25 or 30 for GU. Best to find 20 pip Stop loss entries though. 


 

Ok I will adjust that in my trading plan.
So that is 
UJ = max 20 pis
GU = max 25-30 pips , best to look for 20 pips
EU = max 25 pips, best to look for 20 pips
 

 

It is already in your trading plan. 

[Minsk]

actually hoping for another banana signal that will give a much smaller SL. So maybe we can adjust the trade after this candle

update: trade is running




 

Remember Maximum Pips for stop loss is 25 or 30 for GU. Best to find 20 pip Stop loss entries though. 



 

Ok I will adjust that in my trading plan.
So that is 
UJ = max 20 pis
GU = max 25-30 pips , best to look for 20 pips
EU = max 25 pips, best to look for 20 pips
 


 

It is already in your trading plan. 

 

yes it is, but the numbers on GBP-USD were stated as 30-ish
that's too much

[immy]

The idea is rather simple

Common sense

What is the Average Range of the pair? 

Say it's 100 pips. But we all know that it does not mean that this pair will do 100 pips move either side every day. 

It is after all an average. This means, that some days might be higher and others might be lower. 

Suppose we assume that on certain high volatility days, it goes 50% over the average daily range. and on other low volatility days, it moves 50% less than the average 

that means Min of 50 pips and Max of 150 pips. Can it do double its normal Range? sure it can, but the probability of that happening is lower compared to the probability of average or 10% or 25% more or less than the average.

And so we like to take advantage of the markets when volatility is normal or above normal. 

The smaller the stop loss of a VALID signal, the higher probability of a BIGGER winner. 

When you get to stage 3 (a subjective 3-stage conceptual process that I designed as a model to portray the stages of a trader's development cycle). 
you will be able to choose when to risk more and less. 

E.g. today, I was VERY bearish on the US indices, and taking into the factor that the Setup was very good, I risk 1.5% on that trade. I risk more when I RATE my trade 7 or more. IF a trade is less than 5, that means I made a mistake it should not have been taken. But you don't have to do it like this for now. You don't (probably) yet know what is a good A or B-rated setup. but you will in time. 

So, the tighter the stop loss, the more chance of hitting 3R , 5R or 10R. The wider the stop loss, the less chance of hitting more than 1R or 2R but slightly higher chance of a winner overall. 

WE have restricted ourselves to trade setups that appear within CLEARLY trending markets and that has the LOWEST (smallest) stop loss , so that we can target 3, 5 or 10 R winners. 

hope this makes sense. 





 

[Minsk]

My GU trade from yesterday is still running. It's in trading range now.
I would have closed yesterday if it wasn't for my trading plan that does not have this action in it. DS0 if I close the trade.
I suppose for now that is OK, as I need to learn when I can do this and when not.
So I'll sit it out, hoping GU will tank asap.
In the mean time, no new trades, as only 1 at a time.