Emma´s T20 Journal

[immy]

What you've done is that you managed the context correctly 

You kept an eye on the trend

You knew what M5 was doing and you were aware that it's generally a downtrend but it might be taking a pause from the hourly or daily point of view

Then you found THE PATTERn within the CONTEXT that you approved. 

This is the PATTERN... and we need to use this pattern within the RIGHT context.t Well done. 
 
ps: some times the market creates TTTRPP

It gives us 2 or 3 Trend Candles but before it does its pause or pullback, it does an R candle (doji or IB) ... then PP... it's that turning around point. 

 
 

[immy]

What you've done is that you managed the context correctly 

You kept an eye on the trend

You knew what M5 was doing and you were aware that it's generally a downtrend but it might be taking a pause from the hourly or daily point of view

Then you found THE PATTERn within the CONTEXT that you approved. 

This is the PATTERN... and we need to use this pattern within the RIGHT context.t Well done. 
 
ps: some times the market creates TTTRPP

It gives us 2 or 3 Trend Candles but before it does its pause or pullback, it does an R candle (doji or IB) ... then PP... it's that turning around point. 

 
 

 

 

[eaxh]

What you've done is that you managed the context correctly 

You kept an eye on the trend

You knew what M5 was doing and you were aware that it's generally a downtrend but it might be taking a pause from the hourly or daily point of view

Then you found THE PATTERn within the CONTEXT that you approved. 

This is the PATTERN... and we need to use this pattern within the RIGHT context.t Well done. 
 
ps: some times the market creates TTTRPP

It gives us 2 or 3 Trend Candles but before it does its pause or pullback, it does an R candle (doji or IB) ... then PP... it's that turning around point. 

 
 


 

 

 

That trade was a no brainer. 
I like these trades
Thank you!!

I saw your post about the different versionsof the bananapattern and got me thinking. A great and needed post!!

[eaxh]

Afternoon 2022.06.14

No trade around news.

I sat and watched and after a while saw the perfect setup on DOW. I had time to take the trade bfore neo so i did. 
Trade 1 in batch 4


A HH in the direction of HTF and a cute little signal. Ended be. 

Trade 1.png

 

14.06.2022_16.18.32_REC NEO.png

 

 

[eaxh]

 News at 14:30 and FOMC at 20:00

15.06.2022_10.26.14_REC pic 1 day.png

trade 2 and 3.png

trade 4.png

 
 

trade 5 and 6.png

 
 
 
 
 

[eaxh]

I have alot of trades going past 2 R to then ho back to BE and i gets out be. 
Its very triggering to start to take 2 R targets instead of BE´s but then i never have 2 R targets. I have gone through my batches
And ddoes not make the profitability better. But i will have to say that its hard to resist. 
But i am keeping the 3R targets- 

The bad feelings of missing the move on DAX is present. 
What can i do now? Nothing. Some day i will catch it. 
I am taking my trades over and over and that will hake me a winner. Not today, but in the long run. 

I am posting the printscreens from today. 

16.06.2022_09.41.56_REC thursday.png

 

16.06.2022_10.46.46_REC NAS review.png

 

16.06.2022_10.50.28_RECdax review.png

 

trade 7.png

 

trade 8 adn 9.png

 



 
 
 

[immy]

I have alot of trades going past 2 R to then ho back to BE and i gets out be. 
Its very triggering to start to take 2 R targets instead of BE´s but then i never have 2 R targets. I have gone through my batches
And ddoes not make the profitability better. But i will have to say that its hard to resist. 
But i am keeping the 3R targets- 

The bad feelings of missing the move on DAX is present. 
What can i do now? Nothing. Some day i will catch it. 
I am taking my trades over and over and that will hake me a winner. Not today, but in the long run. 

I am posting the printscreens from today. 16.06.2022_09.41.56_REC thursday.png
 16.06.2022_10.46.46_REC NAS review.png
 16.06.2022_10.50.28_RECdax review.png
 trade 7.png
 

trade 8 adn 9.png
 



 
 
 



 

It's harder to stay profitable on 2R targets and 33% win rate...


That's really our win rate if we eliminate the BE trades. BE trades are like trades that did not happen but they did. They happened but did not affect the bottom line.

Remind yourself that for a system with 1:3 risk to reward trades the breakeven win percentage is 25%. Whereas for a system with 1:2 Risk to Reward trades the Breakeven win rate is 33%. 

So, for the argument, if we eliminate the BE trades, we are left with 50% winners and 50% losers. 

However, this does not mean that even if you don't employ the SL to BE move, you will still get the same results. The assumption is that  BE trades won't all go and become -1R, that 50% of the BE will hit 2R and the rest will hit -1R. ) Sometimes, eliminating BE will result in a higher win rate other times a lower win rate. 

We can't just say 1:3 Risk to Reward... because we have a third alternative i.e. BE.So our risk to reward is actually 1:0:3 or 1:0:2.  It's either 1R loss to No loss or 1R loss to 3R Win. And since the probability of BE trades is 33% then we can add this to winning trades which would HALVE the winnings R's. 

So in reality our  average risk-to-reward formula goes like this: 

Let
X = Loss Trades
Y = Breakeven Trades  
Z= Profitable Trades (3R)

The formula goes X = (Y+Z) 
Let Z=3R
where X is one unit of risk and it's equal to the sum or average of break-even and Profit Trades. 

Fill the numbers for 10 Trades
 X = 10
Y = 3.3 (33% BE Trades)
3R=3.3  (33% Winners)

10X = 3.3Z + (3.3 * 3R)
X =  (3.3 + 9.9)/10
X = 1.32 R 

So our Average winner is not 3R it's actually 1.32. So our profit factor will be 1.32

Now do this with 2R 

10x = 3.3Z + (3.3 *2R)
10x = 3.3X + (6.6R)
X = (3.3x+6.6R) / 10
X = 0.99 

Woopsie... you are just about breakeven with 2R winners. 

IF someone can prove these calculations wrong, please do so. 

 
 
 

[eaxh]

I have alot of trades going past 2 R to then ho back to BE and i gets out be. 
Its very triggering to start to take 2 R targets instead of BE´s but then i never have 2 R targets. I have gone through my batches
And ddoes not make the profitability better. But i will have to say that its hard to resist. 
But i am keeping the 3R targets- 

The bad feelings of missing the move on DAX is present. 
What can i do now? Nothing. Some day i will catch it. 
I am taking my trades over and over and that will hake me a winner. Not today, but in the long run. 

I am posting the printscreens from today. 16.06.2022_09.41.56_REC thursday.png
 16.06.2022_10.46.46_REC NAS review.png
 16.06.2022_10.50.28_RECdax review.png
 trade 7.png
 

trade 8 adn 9.png
 



 
 
 


 

It's harder to stay profitable on 2R targets and 33% win rate...


That's really our win rate if we eliminate the BE trades. BE trades are like trades that did not happen but they did. They happened but did not affect the bottom line.

Remind yourself that for a system with 1:3 risk to reward trades the breakeven win percentage is 25%. Whereas for a system with 1:2 Risk to Reward trades the Breakeven win rate is 33%. 

So, for the argument, if we eliminate the BE trades, we are left with 50% winners and 50% losers. 

However, this does not mean that even if you don't employ the SL to BE move, you will still get the same results. The assumption is that  BE trades won't all go and become -1R, that 50% of the BE will hit 2R and the rest will hit -1R. ) Sometimes, eliminating BE will result in a higher win rate other times a lower win rate. 

We can't just say 1:3 Risk to Reward... because we have a third alternative i.e. BE.So our risk to reward is actually 1:0:3 or 1:0:2.  It's either 1R loss to No loss or 1R loss to 3R Win. And since the probability of BE trades is 33% then we can add this to winning trades which would HALVE the winnings R's. 

So in reality our  average risk-to-reward formula goes like this: 

Let
X = Loss Trades
Y = Profit Trades
Z = Breakeven Trades 


The formula goes 

X = (Y+3R)
where X is one unit of risk and it's equal to the sum or average of break-even or Profit Trades. 

Fill the numbers for 10 Trades
 X = 10
Y = 3.3 (33% BE Trades)
3R=3.3  (33% Winners)

10X = 3.3Z + (3.3 * 3R)
X =  (3.3 + 9.9)/10
X = 1.32 R 

So our Average winner is not 3R it's actually 1.32. So our profit factor will be 1.32

Now do this with 2R 

10x = 3.3Z + (3.3 *2R)
10x = 3.3X + (6.6R)
X = (3.3x+6.6R) / 10
X = 0.99 

Woopsie... you are just about breakeven with 2R winners. 

IF someone can prove these calculations wrong, please do so. 

 

 

Thank you for the logic and educational reply!
Now there is no question about it!
I am keeping 3R targets.

[eaxh]

i will in the continue put the result in %´s. 
Result for this batch -1,3%
Ds score 75%... 
Not satisfied with the results.

The plan for the next Batches is to be aware of when that happend and stop me before i take those bad descisions.

I will plot the trades in this bath with the template i have now to see how they look. 

1.png

 

2 och 3.png

 

4 och 5.png

 

6.png

 

7.png

 

8.png

 

9 och 10.png

 

11.png

 

12 och 14.png

 

13 och 15.png

 

16.png

 

17 och 18.png

 

19 och 20.png

 



I can see that i am vary bad with countertrend trades. 
the ones i understand and can identify most easy is the continuationsetup after a M5 pullback a.k.a the original hunt setup.
And the tight range and retest.
I see those easy because they are the one i have traded the most. when traded Setup 1 on S2 that is the pattern that i needed to see
on M1 to trade.
I need to see the market move FIRST.
There are enough setups on M1 for that. I dont need an "super-early-hard-to-spot-entry".

I am often stressed to take a trade because i only have 2 H of LO. 
Does that make me money? Well, no!!!
What makes me money is to just sit when there is no clear direction. 

I can see a big difference in my trading when its clear and when its not.
So the simple solution is- Do not place a trade feeling confused. The confusion is there for a reason.

As one can see i only trade CC = confirmation candle. It has to close in the upper or lower half of the candle. 



I have moments of EXTREME clarity. When i think of these moments that is when the market moves how i want it to. 
TO be more specific it is when it move in elliot waves, like the waves i recognize. then i know when i can trade and when not to.
when it start to move more random i get confused and take trades that are out of my plan. i try to make the market fit into my rules. 
That is a trigger for me to take Ds0 trades. 


What to do with countertrend.
If HTF makes a zigzag pullback i usually get into a a trade in the absolut worst spot. 
The emas are correct at that point but its a BAD ONE! The HTF pullback is usually done by then and goes in the different direction again.
I will have to wait for a reset and then if it continues up i can take a trade in the new direction. 
I am too eager...
I remember in the beginning of my trading they were hard for me then already.


A very useful post that Immy posted writing this review. 
" insert"

Max 5 candles in the impuls will lower the changes of taking a climatic trade.
I use emas to asses if the pullback is too impulsive, then the emas is not sloping. Also when the market is too slow one can use emas to see that, when that happens they are not smooth.



So what will i do in the next batch!
Continue to take the trades in M5 direction. 
Eliminate the climatic and the ones with uimpulsive pullback. 
Just trade my setups!.
 

[steven3]

It's harder to stay profitable on 2R targets and 33% win rate...


That's really our win rate if we eliminate the BE trades. BE trades are like trades that did not happen but they did. They happened but did not affect the bottom line.

Remind yourself that for a system with 1:3 risk to reward trades the breakeven win percentage is 25%. Whereas for a system with 1:2 Risk to Reward trades the Breakeven win rate is 33%. 

So, for the argument, if we eliminate the BE trades, we are left with 50% winners and 50% losers. 

However, this does not mean that even if you don't employ the SL to BE move, you will still get the same results. The assumption is that  BE trades won't all go and become -1R, that 50% of the BE will hit 2R and the rest will hit -1R. ) Sometimes, eliminating BE will result in a higher win rate other times a lower win rate. 

We can't just say 1:3 Risk to Reward... because we have a third alternative i.e. BE.So our risk to reward is actually 1:0:3 or 1:0:2.  It's either 1R loss to No loss or 1R loss to 3R Win. And since the probability of BE trades is 33% then we can add this to winning trades which would HALVE the winnings R's. 

So in reality our  average risk-to-reward formula goes like this: 

Let
X = Loss Trades
Y = Profit Trades
Z = Breakeven Trades 


The formula goes 

X = (Y+3R)
where X is one unit of risk and it's equal to the sum or average of break-even and Profit Trades. 

Fill the numbers for 10 Trades
 X = 10
Y = 3.3 (33% BE Trades)
3R=3.3  (33% Winners)

10X = 3.3Z + (3.3 * 3R)
X =  (3.3 + 9.9)/10
X = 1.32 R 

So our Average winner is not 3R it's actually 1.32. So our profit factor will be 1.32

Now do this with 2R 

10x = 3.3Z + (3.3 *2R)
10x = 3.3X + (6.6R)
X = (3.3x+6.6R) / 10
X = 0.99 

Woopsie... you are just about breakeven with 2R winners. 

IF someone can prove these calculations wrong, please do so. 

 
 


 

Since I live in the EST time zone, I can only trade the US market and the opening of the Asian market. Forex makes small moves during this time period so 3R is very difficult to achieve for 1h trades. The 5min trades may work, but they need to be managed constantly and I just can't do that. The one strategy that does work is the famous set up that makes moves during the London market, but I can't manage the positions since I will be sleeping. Any suggestions?