Ray's amnesty page

[immy]

some times I feel like i can't even trade that One m1 chart. Higher Time Frames are so much better. But for years, the secret of success for me is my ability to keep it simple and trading only one market on one time frame is actually "that". Simple. Same boring stuff over and over like Ray the Wise arse.

[wiseambitions]

2016-09-02_1505_dax.png

NFP

I made about 84 pips, 75 pips until TM closed me out (forgot to reset the TP) followed by a few more

THe morning was boring

Ray

[wiseambitions]

Does anyone who writes on here know anything about the concept of "gap filling"?

I often hear of it on other blogs, but don't know if there's any science to it, however some people eg Ninja traders seem to put great importance on it.

However it must have happened with Dax this morning.

I'll show it by putting up a chart from a broker who closes his price feed every night, and it shows where the price left off at the end of Friday.
And that it opened at FO somewhat higher with a jump of perhaps 35 pips.

Other brokers who have a 24 hour price feed started a "futures" price late on Sunday evening, which is based on other stuff going on all round the world until Frankfurt comes up. There was a general rise overnight (in the early hours of Monday morning) and when 0700 came round there was no major shock to where it had been quoted the previous m1 or m5 candles.

I took a long trade which I closed in loss for about 6.5 pips at 0728 which I reversed to open a short which I kept running until LO.

At LO the price spiked down and touched the closing price of Friday night, at which time I took profit of 25 pips because it surpassed my day's ROC target and put the kettle on for a caffeine fix.

My exit was not based on any rules, I didn't have a Fib extension projected, my SL was now at BE, and would have usually just stayed in the trade until either the alligator caught up with me or I had other reason to quit, but it was a good exit, because the market went back up and has for at least 20 more minutes stayed up.

So we could definitely say it was a case of gap filling.

First chart shows Pepperstone (and the gap)
Second shows a London broker (24/5 price feed) and my actual trades

2016-09-05_0810__dax.png

2016-09-05_0812_dax_trades.png

[Tomi]

Not sure if this is the same thing but I know some forex traders that put emphasis on gaps that are created during weekends on forex pairs. They say that "gaps must be always filled". Personally I don't believe this kind of laws as such but on forex it sure could be true at least in most of the cases. It's just a matter of timetable. Different countries have their economic growth, interest rates etc and those varies over time. Currency values have a tendency to move in certain big ranges and therefore the gaps will be eventually filled. I think it's just how those behave over the years. On stocks and indices I have a difficulty to think the same way as those can (little exaggerate here) rise forever or go to zero.

On trading wise I think it's just as any other strategy. It just works or doesn't as per trade. There's no law that market does something in 100 % accuracy for every trade.

Just my thoughts....not an expert opinion of economics.

[wiseambitions]

Thanks Tomi



Perhaps what goes on, like with overnight and overnight gaps is that there are a lot of buy (or sell) orders which are left open, or put in the next morning, which kick in immediately the gap does close, sometimes causing that the gap closes and then the market carries on in the direction it started the day. So maybe it's a case of unfinished business being completed and is only a momentary thing. Like you say there is no law in physics that says it has to happen, but some people use it as a strategy and perhaps get profit more times than suffer loss for adopting it.

Today (until 1330 in UK) in terms of Dax is very range bound. With US closed I suppose it would take some big external factor to cause it to do anything for the rest of the day, so I am on the sidelines

[Tomi]

Right right, that's a different rationale. It sure could be like that but no experience in my head. My approach was for bigger timeframe. Days to months/years. For that timescale I know some people have trust on their approach. Personally I like seeds and that's it

[wiseambitions]

Immy introduced seeds as ways of noticing the possible turning of the tides (my words) in a higher TF when you then might for example be able to drill down to a lower TF and see an entry point. All good stuff


My first introduction 10 yrs ago to forex was a gent who came into my office talking about Japanese candlestick patterns. Doji, hammerhead etc etc. I never took his ideas on board because I liked the graphical representation of things MAs. Then I came to the observation with Metatrader that , you often only get a new candle at the point the price actually changes. A new bar could start to get traded at the same price as the previous one closes, but mt4 won't show the starting point of the candle it will only start the opening price at the level where the price actually has changed. Just look and see if you can see a candle which does start at the previous one's closing price! I'm told this is due to the MT4 system designers not wanting to occupy too much bandwidth in all the transmissions that are happening. In fact you could get a candle completely omitted if it only trades at the same point as the close of the previous. Which on lowest TFs (m1) makes me wary of all candlestick patterns. I digress. But I agree the IB/seed works well for you and others.

[immy]

Actually I used IB's, Seeds when qualified, to catch the Push Pause Push Again scenarios and mainly to catch a LOW RISK leverage point to move the EARTH ... IMHO

[wiseambitions]

And on the high volumes you trade Immy I do believe you move the markets

Hoping for more action tomorrow. Just about 20 pips for today's work. Happy that it was positive..........

[wiseambitions]

2016-09-08_1325_dax.png

Thursday morning.
Dax has been somewhat range bound. I saw a comment by Immy on another journal about knowing what time of day to trade/not trade
(which would usually be 0700 to 1030 and 1330 to 1430 for me)

However 1245..... ECB news expected. and 1330 Draghi to talk.

I obeyed my rules in opening a short but did not obey them by holding on to it in spite of a tight SL I just thought in the circumstances 25 pips were worth taking, but I could have done 2 or 3 times that well. I honestly thought news would come which would stoke up the market not depress it, and I still expect Draghi to have the same effect, but I will have to do other work now

Prior to this I had been chopped up somewhat however the losses were reimbursed and I exceeded target for the day

But in terms of pure pips I was down badly. It was only my MM that saved me. +5%