Monday
Dax was pretty flat all day, with plenty opportunities to steal my money in whipsaw, so I was glad I was only trading small risks.
A review of h1 shows we were stuck in a 60 pip range since FO, perhaps a w4?, after a lot of movement the end of last week.
The best trade I saw all day was after market closure, and justified by direction of the AO and the 6/50EMA strategy I sometimes talk about. A bit like trading m5 on m1. I was late in though, and would have done better to get out a little bit earlier on the break of top aims level there, but anyway plus 36 pips from that attempt
I will try and attach 2 charts.
Ray's amnesty page
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
Hello Ray
I'm curious about your dotted gold MA on last two screenshots
I can't identify it no matter how many permutations
I try.
The last M1 screenshot caught my attention. Price never
approached blue on its way down or up
It trampled all over green and breached red a few times
but it seemed to show a notable reverence for dotted gold
on this chart at least. I've circled the instances where it
follows it's lead but just wont break through it
There is no set rule where best to exit. sometimes price gives
us the cue, its relationship to green or maybe red may determine
which gator line we will use for exit if its crossed or closed beyond.
In this case red is extremely close to dotted gold but red was breached
and dotted gold wasn't
in this case a close at break of gold might have been close to break up
of AIMS but might have signified extra reason to get out
may be a red herring or a 'one off' but I'd like to check it out a bit more
I'm curious about your dotted gold MA on last two screenshots
I can't identify it no matter how many permutations
I try.
The last M1 screenshot caught my attention. Price never
approached blue on its way down or up
It trampled all over green and breached red a few times
but it seemed to show a notable reverence for dotted gold
on this chart at least. I've circled the instances where it
follows it's lead but just wont break through it
There is no set rule where best to exit. sometimes price gives
us the cue, its relationship to green or maybe red may determine
which gator line we will use for exit if its crossed or closed beyond.
In this case red is extremely close to dotted gold but red was breached
and dotted gold wasn't
in this case a close at break of gold might have been close to break up
of AIMS but might have signified extra reason to get out
may be a red herring or a 'one off' but I'd like to check it out a bit more
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
Yes the dotted line is just the EMA of 25
And why I might find it interesting came to me a year or two ago from someone who doesn't belong to this forum but learned his trade directly from Bill/Justine Williams.
The observation is that a cross through the red of gator can be a good time to go short (or long as the case may be) for "a quick about 8 pips if on m1" provided the AO isn't a long way from zero.
I then observed if you may remember that quite often a cross of that line through green can be a good time to take a profit if you're in an s1 trade
I agree it was interesting how the market trended and even if m1 touched green and sometimes red line of alligator it didn't touch the blue.
But there's never enough evidence to say just trade one side of the red (or blue) line! Had one exited on a cross of green there would have been much smaller gain if not a loss, trading m1, s1 rules.
It just comes down to my thoughts about the speed/tempo of the market which are as follows
---------
The point I am struggling with is this:
We can look back on a day in the time frames of m1, m5, m15, m30,h1, etc etc and it will give us the picture as to whether the market moved fast or slow.
Some days it pays (looking back) to be a trader of the m1
other days the market moves slower, perhaps it gets into a flag pattern, and better profits (or smaller losses) would have been received from trading in a slower TF.
The question is how do we know when the market opens whether it is going to be a good or a bad day for us (in respect of having structure and in respect of not getting into a flag pattern) ? And therefore how do we decide whether to stay with our normal time frame of chart?
The only clue I can find is to look at the expected economic news announcements for the day (NFP/FOMC/ECB etc), make sure it's not a public holiday in the market where you're trading, and just trust "Chaos".
Yesterday (Monday) was just one of those boring days, a 60 pip range is just a bit over 0.5% swing on the Dax index, and is below normal.
Days of ranging can be killers. Either you do what Immy says and withdraw after say 3 losing tries, or you carry on and eventually you hope to get a runner, like I saw after 5pm yesterday. But it might not have happened.
And why I might find it interesting came to me a year or two ago from someone who doesn't belong to this forum but learned his trade directly from Bill/Justine Williams.
The observation is that a cross through the red of gator can be a good time to go short (or long as the case may be) for "a quick about 8 pips if on m1" provided the AO isn't a long way from zero.
I then observed if you may remember that quite often a cross of that line through green can be a good time to take a profit if you're in an s1 trade
I agree it was interesting how the market trended and even if m1 touched green and sometimes red line of alligator it didn't touch the blue.
But there's never enough evidence to say just trade one side of the red (or blue) line! Had one exited on a cross of green there would have been much smaller gain if not a loss, trading m1, s1 rules.
It just comes down to my thoughts about the speed/tempo of the market which are as follows
---------
The point I am struggling with is this:
We can look back on a day in the time frames of m1, m5, m15, m30,h1, etc etc and it will give us the picture as to whether the market moved fast or slow.
Some days it pays (looking back) to be a trader of the m1
other days the market moves slower, perhaps it gets into a flag pattern, and better profits (or smaller losses) would have been received from trading in a slower TF.
The question is how do we know when the market opens whether it is going to be a good or a bad day for us (in respect of having structure and in respect of not getting into a flag pattern) ? And therefore how do we decide whether to stay with our normal time frame of chart?
The only clue I can find is to look at the expected economic news announcements for the day (NFP/FOMC/ECB etc), make sure it's not a public holiday in the market where you're trading, and just trust "Chaos".
Yesterday (Monday) was just one of those boring days, a 60 pip range is just a bit over 0.5% swing on the Dax index, and is below normal.
Days of ranging can be killers. Either you do what Immy says and withdraw after say 3 losing tries, or you carry on and eventually you hope to get a runner, like I saw after 5pm yesterday. But it might not have happened.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
30 pips this morning on a trade opened around 0720 UK time. I could have done about 15 pips better but I see since capturing the screenshot it has gone back down quite a lot more. The first red bar on the AO would have been as good an exit as any, and better than what I let happen.
I will try and attach a chart showing the interaction of the 6 and 50 ema here:
Just an update. Since that exit the market went down, 6 and 50 crossed, but towards purple, and I didn't take it. The surge down was only momentary. After that we had a cross upwards (which I wasn't here to take) which would have presented another nice little pile of pips. The red and blue arrows are from an EMA crossover .ex4 indicator available everywhere.
And now another update. I missed an excellent opportunity there. The upward cross of 6/50 could have been very profitable, and the time to get out would have been when AO crossed the ZL downwards if not as many as 10-20 candles earlier. Kiravon may notice the dotted 25ema crossed through red line of gator before the top of the gator's curve and has still not gone back up through. Revised chart here:
I will try and attach a chart showing the interaction of the 6 and 50 ema here:
Just an update. Since that exit the market went down, 6 and 50 crossed, but towards purple, and I didn't take it. The surge down was only momentary. After that we had a cross upwards (which I wasn't here to take) which would have presented another nice little pile of pips. The red and blue arrows are from an EMA crossover .ex4 indicator available everywhere.
And now another update. I missed an excellent opportunity there. The upward cross of 6/50 could have been very profitable, and the time to get out would have been when AO crossed the ZL downwards if not as many as 10-20 candles earlier. Kiravon may notice the dotted 25ema crossed through red line of gator before the top of the gator's curve and has still not gone back up through. Revised chart here:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
kiravon
- AIMSter
- Posts: 835
- Joined: 18 Dec 2013, 14:08
- 11
Re: Ray's amnesty page
25 EMA! Who would have guessed it!
The only clue about volatility that I've ever heard is as you say
- is there any high impact news? News drives the market
but I found yesterday great - only winners
Today with Orange AIMS it's very rangebound at the moment,
maybe pick up NY Open
The only clue about volatility that I've ever heard is as you say
- is there any high impact news? News drives the market
but I found yesterday great - only winners
Today with Orange AIMS it's very rangebound at the moment,
maybe pick up NY Open
Stop searching for the Holy Grail, you've already found it -
It's in your mind!
It's in your mind!
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
Hi Kiravon.
Yes the 25 EMA. That's all it was.
Now, I made remarks earlier about the tempo (speed) of the market.
And you also remarked about how often the price might touch the green line, the lips of the alligator, which if taken as an exit would close us out of a trade early.
This afternoon was another time in question
I'll try and attach a graph for a chart for m1 Dax which is UK time + 2 hours.
It shows a nice entry, a short marked by a fractal break, a cross of 6/50 (hence the red arrow), and a cross of AO.
The spaghetti of MAs consists of the alligator, the top dotted line should have been purple, it is 40 (smoothed) shifted 25 equating to red of the M5, and the white dotted is 25EMA and the thick yellow lines are EMA 6 and EMA 50.
Now, I ask, which would have been the best exit?
It wouldn't have been the first break of top fractal, because price went on to deflect off the purple.
It might have been before the second break of the top fractal 1/2 an hour later.
But would any MA indicator have given a better exit before then? or was even following the AO until it came back to ZL a silly idea?
It didn't touch blue for a long time, that's for sure......
Yes the 25 EMA. That's all it was.
Now, I made remarks earlier about the tempo (speed) of the market.
And you also remarked about how often the price might touch the green line, the lips of the alligator, which if taken as an exit would close us out of a trade early.
This afternoon was another time in question
I'll try and attach a graph for a chart for m1 Dax which is UK time + 2 hours.
It shows a nice entry, a short marked by a fractal break, a cross of 6/50 (hence the red arrow), and a cross of AO.
The spaghetti of MAs consists of the alligator, the top dotted line should have been purple, it is 40 (smoothed) shifted 25 equating to red of the M5, and the white dotted is 25EMA and the thick yellow lines are EMA 6 and EMA 50.
Now, I ask, which would have been the best exit?
It wouldn't have been the first break of top fractal, because price went on to deflect off the purple.
It might have been before the second break of the top fractal 1/2 an hour later.
But would any MA indicator have given a better exit before then? or was even following the AO until it came back to ZL a silly idea?
It didn't touch blue for a long time, that's for sure......
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
kiravon put up a link the other day to an EA which attempts to trade fractal breaks. I tried it 12 hours on a demo and after a promising start all it achieved was massive drawdown. I can't explain why, but it's a combination of missing some of the breakouts (it doesn't always put POs both at top and bottom fractals) and it also deletes a lot of the POs. On standard parameters it also gets the SL and trail wrong and doesn't set a TP. Therefore a lot of work needed to improve the default settings.
The same people have also seemingly done something similar working on MACD in conjunction with donchian channels. Which is doing nearly the same thing as fractal breakouts. I haven't tested that one. MACD works on EMAs rather than SMAs, whereas I think you'll find AO works on SMA.
But what's more, I find they are offering another (Free!) EA based on Bill Williams and Trading in the Zone. When you unpick it this system is almost the same as Classic Aims. using Alligator, except instead of AO it still works on MACD (suggested setting is fairly similar to AO) and AC thrown in for good measure.
http://www.pointzero-trading.com/Produc ... ZTheZoneEA
Now I can imagine a good debate getting started.
I seriously doubt any robot can automate what we are meant to be doing! Definitely not one that really works and gets distributed free either! But I do know that 5 or 6 years ago quite a few of my trading budgets would spend many hours trying to optimise an EA to bring those elusive riches which no EA has convincingly achieved ever before!
The same people have also seemingly done something similar working on MACD in conjunction with donchian channels. Which is doing nearly the same thing as fractal breakouts. I haven't tested that one. MACD works on EMAs rather than SMAs, whereas I think you'll find AO works on SMA.
But what's more, I find they are offering another (Free!) EA based on Bill Williams and Trading in the Zone. When you unpick it this system is almost the same as Classic Aims. using Alligator, except instead of AO it still works on MACD (suggested setting is fairly similar to AO) and AC thrown in for good measure.
http://www.pointzero-trading.com/Produc ... ZTheZoneEA
Now I can imagine a good debate getting started.
I seriously doubt any robot can automate what we are meant to be doing! Definitely not one that really works and gets distributed free either! But I do know that 5 or 6 years ago quite a few of my trading budgets would spend many hours trying to optimise an EA to bring those elusive riches which no EA has convincingly achieved ever before!
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
Dax down to lower than where it was a week ago Monday .................... I'm not in it nor did I get any Dax yesterday, but it seems as though this week got off to a bad start when the woes of Deutsche Bank came to the surface again. Makes me wonder how many other financial companies are precarious.
I often think I could do with an alert to break of H4 fractal/aims levels because to me that's one of the strongest if not the strongest signals
I often think I could do with an alert to break of H4 fractal/aims levels because to me that's one of the strongest if not the strongest signals
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
Last Friday (a week ago today) was abysmal for me. I got chopped to pieces and gave up 59 pips. Various reasons including trying to mix what I was hearing about economic news with what the charts were saying. Resulting in a bit of wishing and perhaps some premature entries.
Decided to remember the 20 series, and decided not to touch Dax all week. I felt I would be too influenced by what I knew was going on in the markets, which included the woes of Deutsche Bank (Where would anybody get more than 10 BILLION quid to pay a fine?). Opted to go with EurJpy which was perhaps our favourite 3 or 4 years ago before most of us decided to go to Dax. I know nothing about the fundamentals of the Euro against the Yen, and I decided to stick rigidly to what charts were saying. To wait for confirmed entries (i.e. a candle has to close above a certain condition, or in the middle of a bar I can only enter if for example fractal breaches). Results were amazingly better. Pip score nearly 140 from 24 trades (too many trades I can hear you all say!) but double digit % account growth to go with it.
I can most strongly recommend the T20 series. And the next step from that is to get the winners on the bigger trades, not the losers, so I also plot cumulative equity growth at the same time as the pips score for each run of 20. With the intention the equity growth (if lot size is varied) is at least as good as the gain in terms of pips.
Decided to remember the 20 series, and decided not to touch Dax all week. I felt I would be too influenced by what I knew was going on in the markets, which included the woes of Deutsche Bank (Where would anybody get more than 10 BILLION quid to pay a fine?). Opted to go with EurJpy which was perhaps our favourite 3 or 4 years ago before most of us decided to go to Dax. I know nothing about the fundamentals of the Euro against the Yen, and I decided to stick rigidly to what charts were saying. To wait for confirmed entries (i.e. a candle has to close above a certain condition, or in the middle of a bar I can only enter if for example fractal breaches). Results were amazingly better. Pip score nearly 140 from 24 trades (too many trades I can hear you all say!) but double digit % account growth to go with it.
I can most strongly recommend the T20 series. And the next step from that is to get the winners on the bigger trades, not the losers, so I also plot cumulative equity growth at the same time as the pips score for each run of 20. With the intention the equity growth (if lot size is varied) is at least as good as the gain in terms of pips.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
-
wiseambitions
- AIMSter
- Posts: 1127
- Joined: 17 Sep 2012, 21:36
- 13
Re: Ray's amnesty page
Last day of the month indeed the quarter and about 400 pips is it movement on the Dax. Amazing if anyone caught it
I wish more people would come on here to share something on their journals
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."
[center]IF YOU CANT EXPLAIN IT SIMPLY YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT WELL ENOUGH (Einstein)
1% daily gain, compounded for 250 trading days, (approximately one year) would produce 1103% account growth[/center]
"Markets reflect the positioning of the sum total of investors – they are not driven by something an individual investor knows that the rest of us don’t, but they do to an extent reflect what investors think other investors are thinking and so can diverge in the shorter term from the economic fundamentals."