Ray's amnesty page

[wiseambitions]

2016-10-07_1613_lucky_exit_cable.png

I would still call this a fairly lucky exit.

AO was diverging, making a lower high when price was making a higher high even if alligator was still open to the upside, wherever his lips were too

Often seems a good time to take a profit


-----

Oh it reminds me of a story a client sent me about a crocodile:

DARWIN POST,
Woman saves herself in Crocodile attack using a small Walking Stick.

This is a story of self-control and marksmanship by a brave, cool-headed woman with a walking stick against a fierce predator.


Here is her story in her own words:

"While out walking along the edge of a creek just outside of our house in Darwin, with my soon to be ex-husband discussing our property settlement, kids and other divorce issues, we were surprised by a huge 5 metre Crocodile which suddenly emerged from the murky water and began charging at us very fast with its large jaws wide open.

The Croc must have been protecting her young and her home because she was extremely aggressive.

If I had not had my little $5 Reject shop walking stick with me, I would not be here today!

Just one Hard Wack to my estranged husband's knee cap was all it took....The' Croc got him easily and I was able to escape by just walking away at a brisk pace.

The amount I saved in lawyer’s fees was really incredible and I got the lot.

ps:- I luv that Croc

[immy]

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

[wiseambitions]

Seems like Friday was definitely a black day for many people

I have come across many more people who got wiped out than made money with the spike on Cable, many will probably have got slipped terribly with their SL settings.


I can talk about the people who lost out because many of them are "PAMM" managers who trade on behalf of followers, and the week's statistics which get published about them make sombre reading.


Yet I suppose if we look at Aims, the boxes, the AO etc, etc anyone holding overnight positions ought to have been short, whether they were on weekly charts, daily, H4, h1, etc

I guess we are going to see more of these violent swings, with the political wrangling surrounding Brexit. And Trump could do it to the dollar too.

A couple days after something happened with the Swisse January 2015 a few brokers declared they were in trouble, it was the end for Alpari.

We need to be cautious of that happening again. And there are probably a few brokers being commonly used who are not tightly regulated because of where they are registered, and the thing about client money segregation then comes into question.

[immy]

A very insightful post Ray.

[wiseambitions]

2016-10-09_2009_120_days_to_20000%_and_back.png

hi Immy

look at the disaster for this poor fellow. He was 20,000% up in 120 days then all the way back to earth. I guess he has had a rotten weekend.

I bet he was on the wrong side of that GU trade. But the equity curve wasn't too volatile prior to all that. I think he's a Russian because the account was denominated in Roubles, broker is Fxopen and he is a Pamm Master account.

[immy]

Thats why we say, "all EA's will EVENTUALLY" fail... specially those with NO Stop Losses.

[wiseambitions]

2016-10-10_1739_dax_m15.png

Monday, rather than trade 1 chart (Dax) on m1 I decided that I would trade several pairs on m15, watching obviously at least 4 times an hour.

Tried with EU, EJ, AU, Dax etc. Several small losers but the best winner was on Dax.
I notice had it been on m5 I would have been potentially closed out several times if it was the GL
As it happens I remembered Kiravon's idea. The midpoint between top and bottom of channel, in this case formed of the previous 11 bars. Not quite the same as fractals but it worked quite well, however on m15 which was the one of course I was watching, gator lips would have been at least equally good. In this example I was a bit late getting in but I was pondering whether to tempt the purple line or not, however it did pay off ok in the end.

Profit factor from 11 attempts was 2.2, Drawdown 2.4%, worst single result -1.6%, overall result +3.1% I consider that a good enough result for a day. Reasonably low stress

[wiseambitions]

The last week or two I have tried doing a bit of what Immy says the professionals do, and that is trade the H1

Instead of just one pair (eg Dax) on m1, it allows for a basket of trading, predominantly in currencies, and so long as precautions are taken against too much correlation eg having everything "dollar strength" related I think it has a lot going for it. And a bit less whiplash too because there's less noise.

Last week I enjoyed a ride up on EurAud, and took profit an hour or two before trading closed. Finding myself short again on that one. But there's not much moving this morning

2016-10-31_0921_euraud_h1.png

[wiseambitions]

Tuesday.
Notifications coming in from various brokers they are increasing their margin rates, starting from Friday, due to their concerns about increased volatility around the US elections. The last time this happened was around the UK EU Brexit vote, but I can't remember it happening before.

Mainly concerns USD related currency pairs.

And probably only affects people with low leverage eg 25:1, 50:1 accounts, going on the usual % risk that our guys would usually be applying.

[immy]

thanks Ray, same here and agreed with your thoughts. I think post Swissy and Brexit effects... brokers have now taken the cautious route.. making sure nobody trades the high volatile periods... the game becomes isolated for the big lads...