Mickey's Journal

[wiseambitions]

I'm watching the EA, albeit on m1. It has put in several POs at top and bottom of the Aims box (and adjusted for the spread too), but it has frequently deleted them before anything happened like a trade opening. I will be interested to see it perform! I looked up the PZ people, and it shows that either it's a new EA or else it has just recently been modified (date of Sept 2016).



UPDATE MID DAY WEDNESDAY

I've had it running on 5 or more m1 charts all the morning. With default settings. At one stage I was ready to put up a report that it is pleasingly positive, in fact it even beat me on my manual trading, however it has made some silly mistakes and erased all its gains. There is not a lot of guidance on the PointZero website how to optimise it in terms of explaining the trailing SL etc, but interesting to see they also have a free EA there which works on MACD together with Donchians which as we keep saying are very similar to fractals. In other words the setup might not be every so very different from our classic S1. However I think it goes to show that although an EA is dispassionate and does not trade on impulse or lucky feelings, the only time success comes before work is in a dictionary and trading does still require the human eye and clear judgement which a machine cannot seem to replicate. If I knew better how to amend the settings I think I might be doing slightly better with this robot but I still cannot understand why it keeps deleting POs nor why it will sometimes open a trade before a fractal is properly breached.

[kiravon]

Opening a trade before Fractal is breached? could that be the spread?

I'm 7% down at the moment on six majors

I also note it sets Limit orders although I really don't know why.

The assumption that if price moves up through AIMS then it will
bounce off upper AIMS and proceed down?

I came across PZ years ago which is probably why I'm on their
mailing list. - this EA was a free promotion. I didn't know
about their MACD EA. I'll give it a try, see how it competes with
Fractal EA.

But this is fun only

and isn't it so strange that you will hear genuine reports of how
such EAs can just be switched on and forgotten about, and a few
weeks later you find your demo account up by thousands!

but try a stunt like that on a live account and you never hear
such a story! - except by the marketers of the program

But if only we could be as dispassionate and clinical about placing
our trades, simply knowing we have an edge and that the numbers
will play out

I've thought about this

I'm sure there are various approaches, many have been espoused
on this forum, commendably, as this is the all important aspect
of trading

and quite frankly it doesn't really matter how well a trader does
on demo unless he trades live with the identical mind set

One approach is to trade with extremely small Lot sizes in
proportion to your account so that it REALLY doesn't matter if you win
or lose, especially if your whole account is money you can afford to
lose

This approach can sometimes seem like slow progress ie the account
balance may not double overnight but it is probably a tortoise and
hare situation

[wiseambitions]

It sounded so promising, yet turns out so disappointing. I think today it deleted about 3/4 of all POs, (300 of them!). I don't know why, although opened about 100 trades on 6 or 7 m1 charts. Most have closed now but there are some rogue trades still running I could also give many examples of its errors which meant that many potential fractal breaks were missed while it hung onto bad trades. I think there is a setting amendment possible in the EA which would cause an open trade to be shut if a new trade opened in the opposite direction. Maybe that would have helped? Proves that the default settings are not good as they stand. It has lost hundreds of pips overall today on demo. I would have been happier if it had done 100 trades and come back to BE because that is what one would roughly expect at random, but it has been in account rip mode overall! Success only comes before work in a dictionary!

[wiseambitions]

PS. They are also trying to automate the trading of classic aims (the Bill Williams way) by an EA. I wonder what all this is about?

http://www.pointzero-trading.com/Produc ... ZTheZoneEA

[wiseambitions]

2016-09-22_1524_dax_thurs_pm.png

Thursday pm, Dax m1. Here's a chart showing that when white dotted (25ema) crossed through alligator lips (green) it wasn't a bad time to get out, certainly too late to think about adding on any more, and when it went down through teeth (red) it wasn't a bad time to go short. The cross of 25 through green is my observation over many months, the cross of 25 with red (once the AO is faded to below "about 10" - not its first attempt on this particular chart) is something from a buddy who learned to trade through the Williams group directly.

[kiravon]

Hello Ray
I've really overdone it today and have serious chart blindness

yes that would have worked well for a reasonable M1 gain

Did you mean the first cross of Red when they are both pointing
upward, - counter intuitive but interesting

What do you think about my M15 trade today?

I think the optimum exit in hindsight was close after AIMS
which corresponded to close after centre Donchian.

I think if I had been looking for cross of red by 25 (blue dashes )
at red vertical line, I wouldn't have responded because price starte
to move up again

but of course everything looks completely different at the time

I've helped myself to most of PZs offerings including one of his
$300 indicators boasting 90% accuracy. it does seem quite good actually.

Ironically his AIMS EA was one I missed

I'll try to pick it up tomorrow out of interest

exit PZ.JPG

[kiravon]

Both my first M15 Divergence trades won spectacularly.

I think anything over M15 might do well but selectivity
is key - it always is!

I will look forward to monitoring more of them over the
coming months

I just found this one on H1, wait for break of AIMS

I prefer to enter early in week, don't really want
it hanging over weekend

div H1.JPG

[wiseambitions]

In response to 2nd article back EURUSD trade

My comment about white of 25ema crossing red of gator..........the AO really needs to be on the way down, so I suppose on my chart it would be after the 3rd peak when it diverged. I don't know what the digital expression of the ideal max AO ought to be for things other than Dax where the gist of it would be make sure AO is under 10, probably under 8 too at the time of entry, meaning momentum is fading (whether for long or short direction).

As to EURUSD. I can't say I am a m15 trader but life might be calmer if I were. The perfect time to get in would have been yesterday afternoon/evening. Anyway what it seemed to do today was open strong at 0700 (UK) then rise with only small retracement, peaking about 1/2hr after NYO......... nice trade

As to best exits what would we say? Bottom fractals/aims levels stepped up until after w5. Price touched green of gator many times. But it didnt go down through teeth (red) until after the big peak. AO didnt cross ZL until after the peak...... The cross down through EMA50 would have been rather too late................ Which one wins? I have no idea, but there's more to be thought about often regarding the cross of teeth instead of lips. Comes back to what I say about the "tempo" of the market. Sometimes the gator steps up faster than the price, even although the price trends nicely, and green is not then a good exit, sometimes it's best to be on m1 or m5, other days maybe m15, m30, h1 etc. How do we know?? Like you say we get fatigued by watching the chart too long.

[kiravon]

Lets see what exit suggests itself on GU M15 today

exit.JPG

[kiravon]

Today the optimal exit was dropping right down to M1 to trail
momentum. I made 80 pips out of a possible 90.

cross of 25EMA over teeth in this case I would have given
27 pips back

Trailing momentum is by far the most profitable exit strategy
when price is moving fast.

The question isn't what exit is best but instinctively knowing
what exit best suits the market conditions at the time

optimal exit.JPG