Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

1. Cross of 25 over teeth supported by cross of zero
2. Cross of 25 over teeth, cross of zero entered break of AIMS
3.Cross of 25 over teeth, set PO below Reversal Pattern
4. Set PO above bullish retest of SMA 50, wave 3 retraced 50%
so aimed for TZ1 but opted for BRN just before that ie 1.72300
then moved Stop to BE, then 15 pip Trail

PS trade 4 I placed trailing stop as market was in a lull and had
already spent too much time in front of screen. I was stopped
for +27 pips. It has since come quite close to TZ1 and exceeded BRN
by 20 pips so I think after three good wins I was inwardly fearing my
luck would run out so decided to lock in profits with the 15 pip
trailing stop. It wasn't the very best decision and was made for
the wrong reasons.

Ironically I felt TZ1 or nearby would be hit but I wasn't frightened
of losing, I genuinely felt my judgement was clouded by
overconfidence.

As I write TZ1 has just been hit. My initial assessment that
wave 3 having retraced 50% should hit TZ1 was correct

flawed psychology got in the way

hg.JPG

[kiravon]

it was my goal to have a profitable M5 strategy
to work alongside my Divergence system

The only drawback to my Divergence system
is you might set ten POs on Monday, some
take time to be triggered, others can take
over a week before hitting TP.

So you don't need to do much after Monday morning
and you can't easily adjust the lot size in proportion
to your account because you never really know.

With the shorter TFs you can employ various stake
management plans because you soon know the new
balance of your account - you don't have to wait a
week or more

I have been looking at some of the old horse racing
staking plans eg SAW stop at a winner

So you increase the Lot size proportionally after each loser
until you get a winner which will bring you into profit

Then you stop trading and start again the next day.

or you can trade using a ratchet staking plan ie in horseracing
typically you bet 10% on a race and keep betting the same amount
every loser, you never bet less than that, but when your account moves
into profit you recalculate and bet 10% of the larger account balance
and keep doing this after every successive winner. Then after the
next loser you keep betting at the same rate as last winning bet

in other words you only ever increase the size of the stake, you
never reduce it - hence the term 'ratchet'

used prudently it can really leverage your profits - of course not
suggesting risk 10% per trade, but even 2% or 3% can benefit
from such trade management plans

[kiravon]

Trading today and yesterday with such clarity was brilliant.

After trading today I went into town and over coffee started
jotting down notes on what I'd gleaned or thought I'd gleaned
last couple of days.

I had it all sussed.

When all my magic arrows are aligned with all the magic crosses
I would be invincible!- ( I have been in this deluded mode before )

When I got home I thought I'd do a bit more backtesting

but once again the charts had returned to being their usual
psychologists inkblot tests of nightmarish proportions

What had happened to all that clarity? where had it gone?

It occurred to me that last couple of days I had been drinking far more
coffee than usual. Was this a coincidence or could it have
actually been enhancing my focus? We'll see.

So what if anything do i know for sure?

Actually very little

I'm looking at all the crosses of 25 over teeth and overall they won't help you.
I'm looking at my indicators - these are the best of the very best - extracted
from some of the very best commercial systems around!

They similarly won't help much and would probably hinder most traders.

What it's all really about is something I've not personally mentioned lately -
you need to be 'in the zone'

and no, not as some born again trader once saved always saved

Sadly it isn't quite that simple

the zone can be elusive

Just follow some very simple system rules that give you the edge
and success is assured? In theory yes

but if it really was that simple there would be over 700 AIMS millionaires
and a similar situation on countless other such forums

but instead, forum or no forum, rules or no rules, the only certain
statistic in trading is that eventually 98% will lose money

so I need to be in the zone and stay there, not take summers off
but stick at it.

so its about being in sync with the market and recognizing
the times when that simply isn't possible due to chaos
on either side or both sides.

chart reading skills is next on the hierarchy of values but
valueless if the above is not in place

so we are back to inkblots

There must be some semblance of trend whether to plot
a continuation or reversal

I was once taken with Forex Trendy and still wish it was as reliable
as the positive review I prematurely gave it

The idea is brilliant

a computer calculates the very best trend with the least
drawdown.

but by the time it has enough information to provide that
information the trend is more or less over and no longer
number one on the ratings and often right off the list -
once you've entered the market

like so many indicators - lagging to the point of absurdity

So jumping in at every arrow is crazy, entering a trend when
its over is ditto

someone said just skim the middle third

sounds hard to calculate if you don't know where the end will
be but we get the point

so we need at least some indication that a trend has started

which is why a cross of 50 SMA and retest might be a good starting point
- we now have some sense of direction

Now we can look for cross of EMA 25 over Teeth and it actually start to mean
something

Its at these times that all the best indicators start to align themselves

Today's trades all revolved around this principle -

cross of 50 and retest happened twice, then cross of 25 over Teeth
supported by break of AIMS and quite a number of other indicators
nearly all confluent - time to take notice!

reversal candlestick patterns - set PO a little above/below

SL and TP relative to each other

place Stop just above/below signal bar, if 5 pips TP can be 1:3 RR

if 10 pips 1:2 RR, IF 20 pips you might not want to take it or
1:1.5 RR.

if price really starts moving 'none of the above' -

after two or three momentum bars drop to M1 and just trail
the bars - by far the most profitable exit strategy in these
situations.

None of the above may be of any use to anyone except me - curiously

one guy on a free forum was asked for his system rules. he declined to
give them and added ' they won't help you anyway, probably do more
harm than good'

I know what he means

I know some guys who swear by the FE30 systems that I use and claim
a virtual 100% win rate. I really wouldn't doubt their success but I
would doubt that most traders would have much success with them

Something just has to click

its the same with AIMS. It simply doesn't work for everyone. I think
in the set up book its claimed that everyone gets it sooner or later
and I would agree with that, providing they stick with it.

a system is a surfboard but it won't help you much if you're not in sync with
the wave

and being in sync with the wave won't help you if you are not au fait with the
surfboard. some people trade on impulse with no real system or rules
- thats like surfing barefoot

everything needs to come together in what we call the zone.

here is just a little analysis which is not cherry picking, on the contrary it
starts out a bit chaotic but I believe it well epitomizes how I see the M5 market

Firstly we see those big railway track momentum bars and big spikes -
there is nothing you can do yet - criss crossing back and forth over 50

we need to see some kind of structure

and we do..

finally price breaks down through 50 decisively with a big momentum
bar and crosses 50.

It looks bearish yes, but placing a Stop above it would mean a 27 pip SL
so RR is questionable. I would leave it

then another momentum bar after which price moves up to retest 50
then it starts to move down again

so we have a sense of direction which is bearish

25 has already crossed Teeth and we have a fresh cross of zero

so place PO below the signal bar?

much better, just 18 pip SL so we could set a TP at 36 pips 1:2 RR which
would have been hit

If you check the vertical dotted line that's where 25 decisively crosses back over
Teeth and I would definitely have got out there for 31 pips profit

In the event your 36 pips was safe but cross of Teeth by 25 is best taken
notice of. price actually kept moving down for another 30 pips but
this particular cross should always be viewed as the writing on the wall

although I've not displayed it here the cross back up of 25 over Teeth is
concurrent with QQE RSI line crossing up over it's red signal line - invariably
spelling sudden death

when these highly reliable indicators tell you to get out it's not smart to
push your luck even though you may get away with it occasionally as
in the case below.

I should mention, in the case here where you enter after the retest signal bar
you could place PO further down at break of AIMS

that would be a stronger set up but the trade off is you would need a 23 pip stop
and a 1:2 RR would mean a 46 pip TP which would have been hit in this case
but these days on M5 you cannot count on very big moves anymore

sense.JPG

[kiravon]

A great breakout on EU which I missed
but at least it all made perfect sense

first cross of zero and cross of 25 over teeth and break through 50
perfect! no that could have been a fake out like the identical set up
ten bars prior

better to wait for retest of 50 and place PO under AIMS that was formed
by the retest. and Stop above last candle only 3.5 so make Stop 5 pips
and RR1:3 or 15 pips

at the moment we are 14.4 pips down and 25 nowhere near thinking
of crossing Teeth

15 pips should be safe

PS 18 pips down - 15 pips easily made for a 1:3 RR or 3% account gain

breakout.JPG

[kiravon]

Another nice trade I just missed while I was fussing about
elsewhere

self explanatory but two crosses of zero, cross of teeth by 25
price breaks up through 50 two arrows appear

PO above AIMS. last candle is only 7 pips, SL under that
TP almost 1:2 aim for TZ1 at 12 pips

usdjpy.JPG

[wiseambitions]

I liked your post written in the middle of the nigth. Talking about all the signals that come if we look for one to do this and another to do that. For the reason that what it all boils down to is people are forever seeking the "holy grail" (actually I don't like the sacrilege of using terms like that), but guess what. There isn't one in this malarkey.

It's a matter of probabilities. 100% success never exists. We can have all the best indicators in the world, and you and I have often talked about them and how they might all line up to say "Go now". But along comes a disturbance, a bit of outside news, or anything to cause a direction change, even one that takes us out by 0.1pip let alone a 100 pip spike. And our plans go all wrong.

So, it's chaos, (not random chaos) that the system is named after. Stochastics is the name of an indicator but in other fields it's the description of the set of circumstances that come together like to say a racing car should put on rain tyres this time...... For which I like it. And that's all we are doing. Bringing together all the circumstances, giving weight to one aspect or another and making a decision.

And it comes back to something I have said for years. If we make 1% a day we will multiply our capital by 11 in a year. If it's 2% then it takes half the time to achieve that. And I have seen Immy might have mentioned a target of 2.5% a week (on his millions that's plenty enough of course). The pursuit of 10% in a day is not going to give a smooth ride!

Our success with this is largely going to be down to taking small risks so emotions don't get in the way, and following the rules which might still only give us 35% win rate (or for others rules which might give them 70% win rate), and make sure the winners yield more than the losers, then the account will grow.

[kiravon]

Yes, sometimes malarkey does seem about the most apt
description

but again Ray's keen eye for detail! noticing I was writing
at 4.00am - even I didn't know that!

no wonder I've been trading like an idiot this morning

but 1% up today so all is well, and resting now until NY open

Despite my fiasco this morning its been quite an education,
stressful as I tried to backtrack but worthwhile overall.

About four screenshots below tell the story

1) on far right price seemed to be retesting 50 and due
to tiredness I was too focused on that. I could plainly
see that 25 had crossed Teeth and in a decisively bullish
way - but I think I'd already decided price would respect
50 and move down

but price had formed a triangle and all the indications were
that it would more likely break out to the upside

so as a concession to that I placed a straddle either side of AIMS,
and I actually believed that was quite a smart thing to do at the time

I should write out one hundred times

'Do not oppose a cross of 25 over Teeth'

What did I really expect to happen?

that the short PO would be triggered and price would plummet down
and all the while 25 EMA would continue to move up parallel to Gator
at a very healthy 45 degree angle as we can see?

Yes that PO was triggered unfortunately, and price immediately
reversed up and hit my 7 pip SL

that was NOT a 'rent', more a charitable donation!

It was so predictable!

straddle.JPG

so 1% down, on to screenshot 2


2. So now my Long PO was triggered and now I'm heading up in the right direction.
my initial SL under AIMS was 7 pips and my target was prior resistance at 18 pips
that you can just see at the top. thats 1.2.5 RR.

but at around 16 pips up price seemed to be stalling worryingly for no apparent reason

not apparent to me but very apparent to any pro trader!

I flicked through all my templates in search of a clue

I found the problem

at 17 pips up price had hit Daily Pivot line!

You might say serious resistance and time to get out!

too late price was moving down and on another template I saw that QQE RSI line
had crossed back over it's red signal line. Fatal!

but 25 hadn't crossed over Teeth yet so I was still in with a chance albeit not
a very good one.

I could have closed for +10 pips but I chose to leave the Stop at BE

I could see a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel

prior res.JPG

on to screenshot 3

3. I could see that two prior AIMS boxes formed a level of Support hopefully
Meanwhile price had formed another triangle and price had broken out to the downside.
but I was counting on that Support line for price to bounce back up at least just to
the 14 pip mark for a 2% win

prior support.JPG

I was very lucky! I had moved TP down to 14 pips and it was hit.
so now I've added Daily Pivot level to my template
that was an extremely careless mistake

target hit.JPG

[kiravon]

EURNZD

ez.JPG

[kiravon]

Hello Ray
tried to answer your query privately but private
messaging doesn't accept any file types for some reason

[kiravon]

GBPUSD

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