Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

EURGBP

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[kiravon]

USDJPY

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[kiravon]

GBPAUD

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[immy]

Time to Make a Decision ---------------- Sticking to the Simplest Easiest Solution. Have you found one?

[Hill]

Time to Make a Decision ---------------- Sticking to the Simplest Easiest Solution. Have you found one?

Simplest, I know and KNOW and KNOW KNOW AIMS Fruit is the simplest one.

[immy]

Time to Make a Decision ---------------- Sticking to the Simplest Easiest Solution. Have you found one?

Simplest, I know and KNOW and KNOW KNOW AIMS Fruit is the simplest one.

Yes, Agreed... But ....

One man's simple could be another man's..... ?

[kiravon]

Hello Hill

You are completely right about Fruit, it is very simple.
I always quite liked it for that reason. What I didn't like
was losing most of the time on M1 TF.

I see you are focusing more on H4 and D1, you should do
a lot better, the rubber band principle is completely sound

In essence that's basically all the markets do - bounce up and
down all day.

The system I trade centers on a break of AIMS after Divergence,
and like you I seem to favour the longer time frames. It only
takes a few minutes a week, on Monday morning to find the
set ups.

My last few posts were more experimental - pretty good, 205 pips
up but fairly incomprehensible to anyone looking in for the
first time. Not helpful!

When I first joined I was doing great but I left the site because
I was too bewildered by the constant debates on all the possible
Elliott wave permutations - it just didn't make any real sense to me.
I understand it a bit better now but it doesn't figure much in my trading.

Simple is not only best but essential

I certainly don't want to bewilder anyone with my convoluted ramblings -
I can keep a record of that kind of thing somewhere else

All the above replacement trades should win and at least it's more
familiar territory.

The only thing I would add to basic AIMS is look for Divergence first and
if there are missed Weekly Pivots that is a set up. Enter at break of AIMS.
Exit is a bit subjective as usual but on higher time frames you should win
around 75% of the time believe it or not.

but that's just my preference and I'm not recommending anyone else
do it, although there are plenty of screenshots demonstrating it.

Perhaps my only other observation is regarding time frames

I can't really speak for M1 but you can still definitely make money on M5.
and that's the problem and snare for so many! You end the week well
in profit and come Monday morning you're raring to go and only to get
a string of losers all week!

The higher time frames are definitely more reliable - I'm not sure if
anyone is doing well continuously on the lower time frames - if so
they are definitely to be congratulated - I know I can't.

[immy]

Hi Mikey

I totally agree with you. I just wanted to quickly make a note as to which strategy are you eventually going to adapt and adapt for good. I see you talk about several things running simultaneously and I lost the track a while back. As long as you are happy and on track, being consistently disciplined and perhaps as a result consistently profitable I am happy. If something works for you, that is what matters. However I'd like to clarify one thing here, and sorry for interrupting your journal. I trade all my strategies from weeklies all the way down the m1.

Fruit strategy specifically is our favourite strategy for out main accounts on the dailies and weeklies. The strategies work on all of them (time frames), on its own. But whether a trader will be able to trade it on a certain time frame is a different matter. I have learned through experience and working with hundreds of other trades, exactly what you said about the lower time frame. Indeed, A larger % of traders will find success of higher time frames and a very smaller number of traders are actually designed by nature for the shorter time frames. I started on the m15, went as low as the 10 seconds chart and made my way back all the way to weeklies an dailies. Fruit is NOT for a certain time frame. I always maintained the view that it should be trade on h1 and above. But we then started trading it on the m5/m1 as well and some found great success with it. But it was VERY busy. The Setup M5/M1 was designed for that. And I'm using the exact same rules for H1 and H4. It works pretty good.

Please continue with what you're doing as long as you find value in it, which I'm sure you do. Its a journey.
(but what is your main strategy?)

Regards

[immy]

One more thin on the Fruit Strategy. I don't know if anyone noticed but it says about the time frame on the first page of this strategy. (the hungry caterpillar)

[kiravon]

All contributions are very welcome, they are not interruptions
and your points are noted, especially regarding weeklies as starting point,
I know a lot of pros do this - so something else for me to explore.

To answer your query the only trades I've placed with a live account
over the last few months is an extremely simple reversal system on higher
time frames. Entry is usually break of trendline and where viable break
of AIMS following AO divergence and there must be at least one
missed weekly pivot. if several and a monthly missed pivot so much the
better. This last rule might sound irrational - that price is somehow
always drawn to missed weekly pivots but the system has been back tested
over the last ten years and has a genuine 75% win rate. RR is not great
but so far this is the only system that has consistently increased my account.

But it takes very little time on Monday mornings so I have been trying
to get back to lower time frames.

I have an experimental trade open which was looking at how to capture those really
long runs. so far we're about +350 pips up.

Since then I have put it into a far more AIMS context.

aims jpy.JPG

As you can see we've had a great break of triangle and the original hope was that we
wouldn't go down further than the ascending lower trendline of that triangle. obviously
anything can happen but it will be interesting to test it to destruction.

I don't think we'll make that 1,000 pips but it would be nice. I explain the entry criteria
further down this post.

Over the last few days I had a very surprising development that I'm at a loss to explain -
I've been focusing on the M1 and have averaged +58 pips a day since Monday. I've never
had any success on M1 before, M5 yes but never M1.

Roughly 50% win rate which doesn't really matter because all rents have been 6 pips or under
whereas some winners have been as much as 32, 34 and even 40 pips. so risk reward ratio
is very high.

I'll upload some of the highlights and try to explain the thinking along the way.

This was a nice one, four winners on the audusd.

4 winners.JPG

The basic entry criteria and add ons is essentially break of AIMS.

I seem to have done quite well without ewaves although I think that would be a useful
complement as per the original set up.

This is what seems to work - for me at least, but curiously that doesn't mean it
it will work just as well for everyone else and it might just be a flash in the pan
- but at least it is simple.

Firstly I draw trendlines on Gator's teeth (Red)

Gator trendlines.JPG

It just gives me an idea how far price is likely to travel

Then add AIMS boxes

add aims.JPG

Then very important, add 50 SMA, 25 EMA (light blue)

mas.JPG

Thats basically it.

If 25 crosses Teeth and they both cross 50. and 50 changes colour i will look to enter at
break of AIMS which often follows a break of trendline

This is nothing very original, it's very basic AIMS with a touch of Ray's MA crosses thrown in

but basically it has AIMS boxes and Gator at it's heart.

Here are a few of the highlights from this week

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usdjpy ultra.JPG

cadchf ultra.JPG