Michael's (zlabis) Journal [The Magician]

[zlabis]

Mon. Sept. 21, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 10:00 - 10:30 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE
NEO-session 15:30 - 17:30 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Came in late because had some private things to do. When I opened charts 1 hr past LO the nice down move was over and we were right at the beginning of w4 up. One PO got filled (Trade 1) but didn't proceed beyond 1:1 so it was exited at BE with +/-0%
second one, which was a good Adam's Apple was invalidated, so I cenceled PO.

I had time in the afternoon and traded NEO session as well. Had one PO at a Seed with Monarch AO pattern which was invalidated as well. The following, big up move didn't show valid entry signals so I stayed outside. Nevermind, tomorrow is another day ;-)

Today's result: +/-0.0p = +/-0.0% , DS = 1 / 1 , 2.50 hrs

[zlabis]

Tue. Sept. 22, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 8:45 - 11:00 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

DAX made a huge down move during LO session.

Trade 1:
Adam's Apple right before LO and at purple. It was a try but it didn't work out. Init SL was hit with -1.0%.

Trade 2:
That Cherry was a great entry but unfortunately first pullback was too strong so SL, which was already brought to BE gut hit by 1p before it started it spectacular down move. Anyway, next.

Trade 3:
Seed after new strongest peak of AO (eWave). Possible R:R was good as micro TP1 was away a bit more than 1 : 3. I placed TP at 1 : 3 level where it got hit.

Although I took out only 2% of that big down move, I was happy about my discipline not to force entries.

Today's result: +20.1p = +2.0% , DS = 2 / 2 , 2.25 hrs

[zlabis]

Wed. Sept. 23, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 9:00 - 10:45 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE
NEO-session 16:30 - 16:45 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

DAX started moving at LO right away. At the strong down move I took my first trade of the day:

Trade 1:
It was a momentum Seed after some very bearish candles and break of lower AIMS level of M1 with entry 1p below M5 lower AIMS level. Seed candle was a bit big with 13.5p but volatility was already very high, so I increased signal bar size threshold for Seeds, Cherries and Dot Candles from 12 to 15.
My hard TP was 1 : 2 for that trade because it was a far distance of more than 30p and there was a strong support level some pips below. TP got hit after only 5 bars with +2.0p.
It turned out that it was a lucky decission to place TP there because exit candle formed a superb counter Fruit signal which initiated a move all the way back to beginning of down move and beyond.
Although analysis was correct, movement and structure were present, I give DS = 0 for it because Momentum Seed is not part of my written trading plan yet.

At 50% pullback of down move there appeared a nice Cherry where I placed a PO. Cherry got invalidated and I canceled PO.

Trade 2:
After initial dowm move there was a strong up move going on which didn't offer entry signals according to my rules (Seeds/Cherries/DCs/S1&S2/AAs) in early stage (except of perfect Fruit at beginning of up move). The first consolidation phase showed a good Monarch pattern on AO but no candle signal and box of S1 was way to big for me. So I waited patiently for a valid signal and it appeared in form of a Dot Candle (DC) after new peak of AO. TP was at 1 : 2 level again because of TZ1 and a resistance level. Price went up quickly and hit TP with +2.0%.

At next pullback after Trade 2 there appeared another promising Cherry but I filtered it for following reasons:
- AO was not peaking above previous peak of AO, it had only nearly same hight.
- strong counter Fruit at top with divergency.
- pullback was more impulsive than preceding up move.

I came back in the middle of NEO session and found DAX in possible w5 of w3. A few minutes later AO formed a new peak, so we had w3 of w3. I waited for pullback and placed PO above Seed at 17:38 GKFX chart time. It got invalidated and I canceled that PO. As next Cherry wasn't a high probability setup with at least 1 : 2 of Risk:Reward ratio I filtered it.

Today's result: +77.4p = +4.0% , DS = 1 / 2 , 2.25 hrs

[Nikita]

As usual perfect trading!

About your filtered cherry - i m still thinking (yes, Immy, i m still cant handle with fighting with my past ) that it should be taken. I filtered that one only because dont like how that pullback looked like. Cant count that as an objective criteria, but AO with the same height is still make me think that i missed that one.

And again, it is a plesure to read your journal! Keep it going, very usefull feedback!

[zlabis]

As usual perfect trading!

About your filtered cherry - i m still thinking (yes, Immy, i m still cant handle with fighting with my past ) that it should be taken. I filtered that one only because dont like how that pullback looked like. Cant count that as an objective criteria, but AO with the same height is still make me think that i missed that one.

And again, it is a plesure to read your journal! Keep it going, very usefull feedback!

Hi Nikita,
filtering that Cherry, despite it's positive outcome, was not only because of AO as I've written above:
"
At next pullback after Trade 2 there appeared another promising Cherry but I filtered it for following reasons:
- AO was not peaking above previous peak of AO, it had only nearly same hight.
- strong counter Fruit at top with divergency.
- pullback was more impulsive than preceding up move.
"

If I don't feel comfortable with structure or signal, I don't trade.

There will be always following further tradeable signals. Sticking to the core rules, without bending them, costs discipline but saves anger, fear, anxiety and frustration, because they produce high probability signals with a very good edge. As far as I remember, Monarch Seeds have an average win rate of about 60% (30% winners and 30% BEs) or more and winners have avg. Risk:Reward-ratio of 1 : 2 and more, which results in the mentioned edge.

Just my 5 cents ;-)

[zlabis]

Thu. Sept. 24, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 11:00 - 11:30 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE
NYO-session 14:00 - 16:00 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Came in late due to appartment viewing appointment and was lucky enough that there immediately showed uo a good Adam's Apple Fruit which took me to Trade 1. I placed TP at 1 : 3 Risk:Reward level which was next to TZ1 of w5. It got exited there with +5.5%. Thank you market!!!

Stopped 15 minutes later for further office stuff.

Afternoon session was a big choppy mess. Some time after NYO I placed PO below a nice Cherry after a move that broke the range. Unfortunately it moved back into range and invalidated that Cherry, so I canceled PO.
After that I stayed aside until it broke out of that range (clearly visable on M5 chart) but it costed me -1.3% (due to 2p slippage at entry) with Trade 2. It was a good Seed but it reversed immediately after entry was triggered.

Right after Trade 2 I closed charts for the day.

Today's result: +48.3p = +4.1% , DS = 2 / 2 , 2.50hrs

[zlabis]

Fri. Sept. 25, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 9:45 - 11:00 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Had meeting in the morning so I missed LO and opened chart 45 minutes later.

First action was placing a PO at DC/PC/S1 into possible w5. At that time, eWave was w5 but my analysis brought me to conclusion that it was more a w3 after LO as LO often resets structure. Therefore it was reasonable to place trade towards TZ1 which was more than 1 : 2 away. It wasn't triggered as price broke out into opposit direction. So I canceled that PO.

After mentioned breakout there was an even more obvious PC at the end of a very nice zig-zag correction of w4. To my joy there formed a good Adam's Apple Fruit at the end of that zig-zag which happened, as additional ungrounded assessment, exactly at 50% pullback of that LO up-move. Without any hasitation I placed PO above signal bar which got filled immediately
into Trade 1. Fibonacci expansion of eWave indie hadn't shown TZ1 yet so I drew it manually with Fib-exp tool of MT4. I placed my hard TP with some points safety distance to TZ1 right at 1 : 3 level where it got hit with +3.1%.

Note: eWave number "3" and eWave fib-exp was not present at time of trades. eWave number was "5" and fib-exp wasn't there at all.

Today's result: +39.6p = +3.1% , DS = 1 / 1 , 1.25 hrs

Result of week 39, 21.09.-25.09.2015 - M1/M5 live:
Mon. 21.09. +0.0p = +0.0%, DS 1/1, 2.50 hrs, M1/M5
Tue. 22.09. +20.1p = +2.0%, DS 2/2, 2.25 hrs, M1/M5
Wed. 23.09. +77.4p = +4.0%, DS = 1/2, 2.25 hrs, M1/M5
Thu. 24.09. +48.3p = +4.1%, DS = 2/2, 2.50 hrs, M1/M5
Fri . 25.09. +39.6p = +3.1, DS = 1/1, 1.25 hrs, M1/M5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result ...... +175.4p = +13.9% (with compounding), DS 7 / 8 (87,5%), 9.75 hrs

Was another great weak. Thank you market. Thank you universe. Thank you Immy, Grant and Steve ^:)^

This week proves to me again that it is very important to be extremely picky with taking trades, espacially according to movement and strukture of market. If the market isn't moving or isn't showing clear structure of eWave (AO) wave count, I don't trade. A good example of market without clear structure wave-wise was Thursday's afternoon session between 14:00 GKFX time (=NYO) and 16:00. There were only two times when price broke out of the range which was very good visiable on M5, where bars stayed inside flat AIMS box most of the time. Those are the conditions where I better filter all signals until we have a confirmed breakout of range. Therefore, both placed POs during that session were ok because the were outside the mentioned range.
Only Fruit strategy allows (and would have allowed us on Tuesday afternoon range) us to catch swing points of such ranges as it is trend following (Adam's Apples) AND trend reversal (counter Fruits) strategy.

So, for Seeds/Cherries/AAs I will stricktly follow my mantra:

I only trade if there is clear and obvious movement and structure!!!

[zlabis]

Mon. Sept. 28, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 9:45 - 11:15 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE
NEO-session 16:45 - 17:00 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Today's trading at LO session was splitted into three parts for me.

Part 1:
From start of my session, 15 minutes to LO, we were in w4 of M5 but we had some chance that it would had gone higher to 38-50% fib ret on M5. So my first attempts to catch something were long POs. Some got triggered (Trade 1 and 2) and one PO was canceled due to signal invalidation. Trade 1 ended at BE because of a spike at LO and Trade 2 failed immediately and init SL was hit with -1.3% due to slippage at entry and exit. All three were decent signals so it was reasonable to take them, so DS=1 for all of them.

Part 2:
After last up move failed breaking the range we got a triangle range which got obvious at least as that following down move failed breaking range as well. With Fruits, I only take AAs, so I didn't get any entries because I ignored trend folowing signals (Seeds/Cherries/DCs/Breakouts) during range bound market. I drew the trendlines which visualized that wedge and didn't take signals as long price was inside that triangle.

Part 3:
After an hour in that range, price brouke out to the down side and I was watching out for short signals. When it pulled back nicely, it formed a Monarch Seed which I took with confidence and without hasitation (Trade 3). It turned out be a small but nice winner with +1.6%.
After that price went further down and AO formed a new peak so next Seed was valid. I canceled PO because signal got invalidate as next bar closed above that Seed.
At that time I lost discipline a bit and became eager to catch the move into possible w5 of w3 with Trade 4 which was 2nd Seed after AO peaked, so was not a high probability signal therefor I should have skipped it. -1.3% due to slippage again and DS = 0 for that.
Next two Seeds got filtered as I was waiting for a setup into possible wave 5. We have either Adam's Apple Fruits or S1 to catch end of w4 / begin of w5, ideally after pulling back between 38.2% and 50%. Here with Trade 5 it retraced a bit more than 38.2% and showed a good P5 and a Setup 1 according to flow chart. Box was slightly big but TZ1 in a reasonable distance beyond 1 : 2 level. I placed hard TP at 1 : 2 level, where it got hit with +2.0%.

Overall I have to admit, that I traded a bit more than I wanted but all entries and POs were according to my rules except of one.

Afternoon was just a quick visit. As it didn't offer obvious structure I closed it right away after 15 minutes because I had some office stuff to do.

Today's result: +24.2p = +1.0% , DS = 4 / 5 , 2.75 hrs

[Nikita]

WHat a strange feeling... I ve jus read my thought during LO session :ymcowboy: (excepet AA and fruits theme)

[Sonata95]

Thank you for your journal, a lot of learning about discipline and taking signal.