Michael's (zlabis) Journal [The Magician]

[zlabis]

Tue. Sept. 29, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 09:00 - 10:45 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Today was a day of big volatility and movement. Even the early birds who traded Frankfurt open had conditions for big profit. When I opened charts a few minutes to LO, I was a bit concerned, that, after the huge FO-session move, it would go into sideway market for the rest of morning session. Fortunately it turned out that it was moving even more during FO session.

One minute after LO there showed up a tempting which was a signal into possible w5 down but I didn't take it because signal bar was too big for me with about 21p. Was a good decission. It proved once more that London Open often resets structure and makes entries according to eWave- and structure-analysis a bit less probable than usually in the middle of a session. IMHO

Another often seen behavior after LO was the impulsive move which broke range and box for a few candles with a reversal, initiated by a good Fruit, into an even stronger move in the opposite direction. That move gave us very good opportunities for entries but only if we stayed disciplined and waited patiently for valid setups.

Trade 1:
This time it didn't take long until strong up move went above purple and pulled back as I like it. Pullback was not as steep as up move, at swing point it formed a beautiful Monarch Cherry and micro TZ1 was a bit more than 1 : 3 away.
Rest was straight foreward:
- PO above signal bar
- when triggered I placed TP at 1:3 (about 3p below micro TZ1)
- moved SL to BE as it hit 1:1
- looking for exit when it passed 1:2 level (I placed SL 2p below round 9400 number around 1:1.5 level)
- TP was hit with +3.0%
- DS = 1 for correct, high quality entry and exit

I didn't take those Seed signals at next pullback because down move looked more impulsive than previous last bit of up move. Therefore I expected a pullback into w4 but it turned out that it went up higher into new w5 of w3. Anyway, even if that signals were big winner, I had my discretional reasons why I did't take them.

Trade 2:
was very similar setup to Trade 1. Move into possible impulsive wave with simultanious cross of AO, pullback, Monarch Seed, TZ1 slightly above 1:3 level. Entry and exit procedure were exactly the same as Trade 1 with rusulted in +3.0% again.

After Trade 2 I had already collected 6% and the up move had already gone quite far, so I decided to quit active trading for the day and was only watching and learning for the rest of my session.
I'm super happy with my trading and results today.

Today's result: +60.2 = +6.1% , DS = 2 / 2 , 1.75 hrs


Discussion at AIMS Skype group today according to hard TP or better let winners run made me think about trade management with Seed/Cherrie. To me it's scalping strategy so I will take profits if there are strong levels like HTF AIMS, HTF purple, micro- and macro-TZ1 or strong counter signals (espacially counter Fruits) after price passes 1:2 level. I will stick to it because it has already given me +57.1% (with compounding) so far only for September along with a VERY relaxed and carefree state of mind during trading.

[Nikita]

As usually very substential monologue! And again, every though is just like i had. Especially about skipping those seeds after T1.
But i m here to say - 75% WHAT! WHAT&! 75% If it is not a seecret - can you show you data file with stats?
Just amazing and still unbelieveable for me!

[zlabis]

As usually very substential monologue! And again, every though is just like i had. Especially about skipping those seeds after T1.
But i m here to say - 75% WHAT! WHAT&! 75% If it is not a seecret - can you show you data file with stats?
Just amazing and still unbelieveable for me!

Thanks Nikita. 75.1% would have been too much. Made a mistake of mistyping. Corrected is 57.1%. Sorry for that ;-)

[zlabis]

Wed. Sept. 30, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 09:00 - 11:00 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Lastz day of September brought us some tricky London Open with DAX. Today was some discipline and patience necessary to stay on the track as it went into range right after LO. As soon I realized the range I filtered signals until that range got broken and more impulsive movement and structure took place.

I paid one rent at the beginning of LO (Trade 1) and was able to catch one nice winner at a good upmove after range was broken (Trade 2). Trade 2 was entry into open signal because I had some problems with my platform. Had to restart MT4 and it had already passed trigger level of signal but I hadn't have placed my PO yet. But fortunately it came down a bit and I could enter with smaller SL and higher lot size. Exit of that was below strong counter fruit after it had already broken 1 : 3 level with +2.8%.

Today's result: +11.4p = +1.8% , DS = 2 / 2 , 2.00 hrs

Here's September's result:
As I've yet started with Pivot Tables in Excel, there are some minor inconsistancies probably based on query or filter settings. I'm working on it ;-)
Fixed it: It actually was a false range at number of trades for "Losses" and forgot checking "Breakouts" in Pivot Table dialog.
My goal is to develop a nearly automatic reporting tool with which I can easily analyse ever growing data set of trades.

Result_2015_09.png

[immy]

60% in September! What more can I write here....

60% .... Have you any idea what that means??????

Those who are reading this! If you're still sitting comfortably and don't already feel like either bursting out of excitement or having a heart attack.... somethings wrong with you!

[zlabis]

Thu. Oct. 1, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 09:00 - 11:00 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE
NYO+NEO-session 14:30 - 16:30 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

After nearly unreal high result for September, I was a bit concerned that the numbers will unconsciously boost my confidence too much and what makes me cocky and reckless. Maybe reflecting that situation kept me on the ground today. I was highly motivated to only take valid signals according to my tradnig plan. DAX showed nice structure and movement after LO so I was able to place two trades on high quality signals.

Trade 1:
It was a Monarch Cherry where I ignored that one bar mini-AO-peak. That's not stretching rules it's simply giving patterns a minimum of tolerance. TZ1 of that w5 was rather far away so I targetet it. DAX had different plans this time and reversed quickly to entry level after it hit 1:1 so I got exited at BE with +/-0.0%. Good setup which didn't work out completely - NEXT.

Trade 2:
This time to the opposit side as w5 seemed to reverse without hitting TZ1. I waited for price to cross purple and then for the next valid setup which showed up at second pullback of down move. As we had no TZ1 at that time, I followed my standard Trade Management procedure: SL to BE when 1:1 was hit and looking for exit signals as soon 1:2 level was hit. It didn't went further down so I trailed candles after AO showed divergency and SL got hit at +1.6%.
I took time to join afternoon session as well and it should turn out later that it payed off massively. As there wasn't any volatility and tradeable structure for me after NYO, I waited for more than an hour before I took my first entry.

Trade 3:
At NEO volatility kicked in and DAX formed a lovely Cherry at a good PC combined with a promising AO pattern which indicated a possible w1-2 down. It simply didn't work out and trade was exited at initial SL with -1.0%.

Trade 4:
Analysis of Trade 3 was still applicable but instead of the Cherry, it formed a beautiful Adam's Apple/Cherry pinbar at nearly exactly 61.8% pullback. I wasn't focused at that time but down-momentum increased massively and I was looking for an entry. After it broke lower M1 AIMS level, it retraced back into AIMS box a little bit. I used this period of consolidation to place my PO below AIMS level with SL above top of mini-consolidation candle. After PO was triggered, it dropped like a brick and I trailed candles. As it went beyond 1:10 level, it hovered there and I had time to adjust TP to 1:10 level and SL above that candle. That was a bit protective but I didn't wanted to give back too much from already possible 10%. At final push TP was hit with +10.1%.
I have to admit that trade was not according to my basic rules. It was done with a technique, Immy recommends for "emergency" entries after a missed Fruit signal into movement with increasing momentum at break of next AIMS level which is on correct side of red gator. Therefore I have to give myself DS = 0 for that trade because I need to point myself to the fact that uncorrectly taken profitable trades can heavily screw up patience and discipline. So I have to be very careful with such things.

Today's result: +70.5p = +10.5% , DS = 3 / 4 , 4.0 hrs

[zlabis]

Fri. Oct. 2, 2015

Screen time:
LO-session 08:45 - 11:00 (GMT+2) M1/M5 DAX only - LIVE

Trade 1+addon:
I started already 15 minutes to LO as I had finished my morning routine a bit earlier and I was lucky to be able to catch that great Adam's Apple at a nice PC. Only concerne was that it appeared some minutes before LO. In addition there was a S1 as addon to that AA Fruit. TP for AA was slightly below upper M5 AIMS level/day-high. TP for addon was at 1:2 some pips below macro TZ1. As it got nearly hit, I decided trailing candles there. Trades exited at +4.3% and +1.2%.

Trade 2:
Promising Adam's Apple Fruit at good pullback level during period of good structure. Unfortunately it simply didn't work out and got exited at initial SL with -1.0%

Today's result: +20.1p = +4.4% , DS = 2 / 3 , 2.25 hrs

Result of week 40, 28.09.-2.10.2015 - M1/M5 live:
Mon. 28.09. +24.2p = +1.0%, DS 3/4, 2.75 hrs, M1/M5
Tue. 29.09. +60.2p = +6.1%, DS 2/2, 1.75 hrs, M1/M5
Wed. 30.09. +11.4p = +1.8%, DS = 2/2, 2.00 hrs, M1/M5
Thu. 01.10. +70.5p = +10.1%, DS = 3/4, 4.00 hrs, M1/M5
Fri . 02.10. +20.1p = +4.4, DS = 2/3, 2.25 hrs, M1/M5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Result ...... +186.4p = +25.4% (with compounding), DS = 12 / 15 (80%), 12.75 hrs

This week was big fun trading. Only small setback is DS of only 80%. Have to analyze my recent and observe my future behavior at trading. Until I'm finished with my analysis and I come to a conclusion of either adjusting trading plan or sticking to it with discipline, I will stricktly stick to my current trading plan. DS of 90% or above is paying off over "intuitive" trading in the longer run, at least with my relatively low level experience.

[immy]

They are going to talk about you on Bloomberg and we will read about you in Market Wizards in the years to come!

[kiravon]

'Low level experience ' - that's the funniest thing I've read in a while!

But I've found your summary most interesting, yes 60% a month is
inspirational to all of us especially given your painstaking documentation
and your consistently high results over the months.

I remember our previous discussion on the 'Holy Grail of Psychology' in
which you gave your slant that was basically just sticking to your
trading plan with discipline, and it certainly seems to be paying off.

but I'm looking at your results which I will assume for the time being
is fairly representative of a much larger sampling, although I will check
out your stats over a longer period

but which of your chosen strategies is the best?

I would argue that it isn't necessarily the one that is the most
profitable

Cherries gave the most pips but that's because you traded them
the most, however I note with great interest that cherries
resulted in the greatest number of BEs

That is what impresses me the most ironically

From a psychological perspective BEs are NOT losers

in other words you traded no less than 28 Cherries in September
of which only 7 lost! So whilst you cannot exactly say you
have a 75% winning strike rate, nevertheless you only incur rents
25% of the time!

To me, a statistic like that even overshadows your 60% gain
for the month - it is absolutely fantastic! Similarly your S1s, although
very few were taken resulted in 66% of trades not incurring rents although
the overall gain % to your account was not the highest of the strategies
employed.

But looking at your Apples is where it gets interesting.

Your Apples gave you the greatest gain to your account of 20%. So without
these trades your profit would have been reduced to 40% for the month.
But of the 19 Apples that you took 9 were losers, so that is almost 50%
losers and statistically a 50% strike rate can result in a losing run of 9
periodically. I don't like losing runs!

But then neither would I like to make 40% when it could have been 60%!

So the wisest strategy might seem to be exactly what you have done ie
combining the strategies so that if you had a losing run on Apples for
example, it would have been interspersed with Cherry and S1 wins so
you would not have had the psychological setback that I personally am
very eager to avoid

But as for the blessing and curse of intuition - that's a whole different
topic!

But for anyone on this forum who like me gets periods of discouragement
your spectacular results really do boost moral! so thanks and keep them coming!

[zlabis]

Mickey!
Great summary and analysis of my recent stats/documentation. It's probably the mixture of signals that brought the good results. It could be argued that I'm applying too many entry strategies, and to be honest, I've been thinking about it as well, but in reallity it's basicly only one strategy using 8 different entry pattern signals:

1.) waiting for market to move and to show structure. I think it's relatively easy to spot if market is moving or not. Spotting structure is probably a bit more difficult. To me, there's structure if price is breaking out of a range with rather clear direction without too many deep pullbacks and paints smooth AO.

2.) I'm waiting for having purple and open M5-gator on the correct side.

3.) ONLY if conditions of 1.) and 2.) are present, I'm waiting for pullback and for signals (Seeds/Cherries/DC/S1&S2/PC/Breakout) or combination of it) and check with Grant's flow chart for Seeds or S1&S2.

4.) If there's a signal with all conditions of 1.) - 3.) are present, I check if potential Take Profit level is far enough away - AT LEAST 1 : 2 of Risk:Reward ratio.

5.) If conditions 1.) and 2.) are present and there's a clear (but not too strong) wave 3, I take Adam's Apples and S1/S2. Proceedure of AA- and S1/S2-trades are very well subsumed in Kyle's AA flow chart and Grant's S1/S2 flow chart.

I've started to realize that, to me, that it's all about conditions explained in 1.) and 2.), since I started trading Grant Rules Seeds and Cherries. The rest came from itself.

So the key to all these signals, although they seem different on the first sight, is always the same:
IS THERE MOVEMENT AND IS THERE STRUCTURE? If not then I (at least most often ;-) ) don't trade. But if yes, then I'm trying to get into the move with all methods I am able to apply properly.

Cheers
Michael