Mickey's Journal

[kiravon]

cross of 5 over 50 MACD 6 50 50 filtered, on EURNZD H1
entered break of AIMS

- already in profit!

Target 31 pips

[Dave]

Nice little shopping list. I kind of like the idea of writing down what you'll achieve at the start of every day. Clear goal definition rather than lost in the enormity of longer term targets.

[kiravon]

Yes it's great.

I like the idea of daily goals being as attainable as
your daily shopping on your list.

but quitting when you're ahead is a real challenge,
greed is ever present and the challenge is to
get mastery of it rather than eliminate it

for example I've made +21.8% so far today and am
on a bit of a roll.

I feel sure I could make a lot more

Maybe time to calm down until tomorrow

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I follow the analysis of one guy who has been extremely helpful
to me in my trading and he rarely loses. His goal is to make
$10,000,000 over the next two years which I am certain he
will make

He has been inactive over the US election period and I followed
that lead.

Today he is back and posts he is buying cable. yes I could see
gu was bullish on D1 but everything else was pointing seriously down.
no way did I see any reason to buy. I stayed out.

exactly as I suspected gu continued down.

then he posts his followers should hold their buy positions and he was
adding to them!

he appeared to be averaging, just about the dumbest thing you can do in trading

I concluded his two week absence had affected his judgement and he was
simply out of form.

but now I see cable is indeed moving up quite nicely on H1 and I missed it.

so who was right and who was wrong?

assuming he goes on to make yet another spectacular win I believe I
did the right thing - trusting my own judgement

I'm not interested in blindly following signal services.

its quite possible he blundered, then instead of admitting his mistake
starting averaging, knowing that price should move in the direction of daily
at some point.

when we follow others, or even their strategy with no real insight as to what
is really happening its like the game 'simon says' - it can be a bit mindless
and you learn nothing to advance your trading skills.

[kiravon]

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RESULTS:
25.10 gbpaud sell W+157
25.10 euraud sell W+94
26.10 eurgbp sell W+47
27.10 eurgbp sell L-30
31.10 gbpjpy buy +30
1.11 usdchf sell +105
2.11 audnzd sell +57
3.11 eurnzd sell BE
7.11 NZDUSD Buy W +37
8.11 NZDUSD Buy W +45
15.11 USDCHF Buy w +24
15.11 EURCAD Sell W +42
15.11 CHFJPY Buy W +17
16.11 AUDCAD sell W +72
16.11 AUDJPY Buy L -29
16.11 NZDCAD Sell W +42
16.11 USDJPY Buy W +46

[kiravon]

.
.
My Ultra Signal idea took under three seconds to
devise

It may or may not work

Ultra signal doesn't keep changing every bar

after three or four new reds or new blues it usually
means there is a change of trend direction

when all MA 5 and 10, both highs and lows are ALL
pointing decisively in the same direction I pay attention

Here is a good example of how it would look for 51 pips

I've got a feeling the MAs and Ultra Signal would
compliment each other beautifully.

Notice we enter at break of AIMS for extra strength

No idea if this is a consistently winning strategy but its fun to play around
with things and all the time you are learning even when you are not always
aware of it

ultra.JPG

[wiseambitions]

I think Ultra signal is working on something around the 80 period linear MA, the dot is blue if the line is rising or red if falling. A colour change can either mean a powerful change in direction or it can happen quite often when you're stuck in a range.

And the effect of it I'd say is that if you have it open on m1 it is similar to trading the m5 or perhaps an imaginary m10 chart, it is a lagging indicator but when the market is trending nicely it can keep you in your trade for a long profitable ride. As does my MA50, perhaps the EMA of 50 isn't a long way distant from the Linear MA of Ultra signal?

[kiravon]

.
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I think I like it because it's quite pretty, and that believe it or not
can be as good a reason to use an indicator as any

Conversely, break of triangle is one of the most powerful
setups you can trade - I have had such a high win rate on
H4 - and many millions have been made trading triangles

but I would never trade them now, although I am conscious
of them forming as I trade my regular strategy as it is
a reinforcement much the same as break of AIMS would be.

but the only reason I don't trade triangles is because it's boring

yes, regularly making money with a system backtested over 100 years
can actually be boring.

Of course I want to trade the most profitable strategy but it has
to hold my interest, maybe that's why I can never settle on a permanent
colour scheme for my templates.

but getting back to Ultra Signal, it is very reliable especially on the higher
time frames and is about as good a trend indicator as you will get, but
my strategy above may not be consistent.

On the test case above we made +41 pips but it might not always work.
That said, if US is convincingly blue and up on D1 and H4 and H1, if you
wait for the pullback on H1 it's very hard to see how you would go very
far wrong, but anything is possible in trading

In the screenshot below everything was extremely bullish, we waited for
price to retrace back to 5 and 10 zone

Entered at break of AIMS for 41 pips.

eurjpy.JPG

[kiravon]

Today watching H4s

Some nice trends, waiting for pullbacks on
EU, UC, AU, NU, UCad, UJ

quietly confident.

In the meantime my long term trade on USDJPY has hit the 1,000 pip level
but I will probably test it to destruction - ie until the trend seems definitely over.

usdjpy.JPG

[kiravon]

.
.
one of things I really like about Ultra Signal, along with it's reliability
is that in a very eye catching and unambiguous way it lets you know
the trend and which way you should be trading

So in the screenshot below these are the pairs I am watching today
and likely this may spill over to next week.

In all the H4 charts below there is compelling confluence on D1

In other words just trade in direction of Ultra Signal

Painting by numbers

Just need to time the entry as professionally as possible.

But it's curious, and there is something I have only noticed
this week -

Whilst I still get manageable rents and always will do
there has been a definite paradigm shift somewhere along the
line

I don't look at all these pairs with any thought of 'supposing
I've got it all wrong? supposing I lose a lot of money?'

I see only strong trends confluent with HTF and providing
I am patient and resume the trend after the pullback it
is just assumed there is money to be made.

There is always the danger of overconfidence creeping in
so I like to say 'quietly confident'

but confident nonetheless.

but not yesterday! I had not slept the night before and nothing
really caught my eye, maybe there were some missed opportunities
but I was in no mood for concentrating on the charts

one thing is for certain - had I persisted anyway I would have lost
money - you need total clarity!

I have that today

US.JPG

[kiravon]

The USDCAD is shaping up really well but we have CAD news
out in 30 minutes so that's on hold

EURUSD is interesting, retracing well into the sell zone and
up almost to 38.2 Fib which is perfect

but what next?

No idea

Keep an open mind

Wait for break of AIMS over 60 pips away?

If necessary

We just have to wait to see how things pan out

Supposing nothing definite happens before close of trading
today?

Then we start again next week

Supposing I 'must' trade today?

If that was t he case I would do well to get out of trading -
that is exactly why 98% fail.

You must be patient - probably over and above everything else

EU.JPG